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Off the Cuff: The Importance Of Global Capital Flows

More responsible for prices than any other current factor
Thursday, November 6, 2014, 9:56 PM

In this week's Off the Cuff podcast, Chris and Brian Pretti discuss:

  • Japan's Halloween Massacre
    • The most glaring sign yet that the central banks are desperate
  • Capital Flows Are King Right Now
    • The reason we have record-high markets despite crummy fundamentals
  • Musical Chairs
    • Every (market) player has fun until the music stops
  • Throwing The Bums Out
    • As our lifestyles contract, we vote out the incumbents

2012 Year in Review

Free markets, rule of law, and other urban legends
Friday, December 21, 2012, 2:34 PM


I was just trying to figure it all out.

~ Michael Burry, hedge fund manager

Every December, I write a Year in Review that has now found a home at Chris Martenson’s website PeakProsperity.com.1,2,3 What started as a simple summary intended for a couple dozen people morphed over time into a much more detailed account that accrued over 25,000 clicks last year.4 'Year in Review' is a bit of a misnomer in that it is both a collage of what happened, plus a smattering of issues that are on my radar right now. As to why people care what an organic chemist thinks about investing, economics, monetary policy, and societal moods I can only offer a few thoughts.

For starters, in 33 years of investing with a decidedly undiversified portfolio, I had only one year in which my total wealth decreased in nominal dollars. For the 13 years beginning 01/01/00—the 13 toughest investing years of the new millennium!—I have been able to compound my personal wealth at an 11% annualized rate. This holds up well against the pros. I am also fairly good at distilling complexity down to simplicity and seem to be a congenital contrarian. I also have been a devout follower of Austrian business cycle theory—i.e., free market economics—since the late 1990s.4

Each review begins with a highly personalized analysis of my efforts to get through another year of investing followed by a more holistic overview of what is now a 33-year quest for a ramen-soup-free retirement. These details may be instructive for those interested in my approach to investing. The bulk of the review, however, describes thoughts and observations—the year’s events told as a narrative. The links are copious, albeit not comprehensive. Some are flagged with enthusiasm. Everything can be found here.5 » Read more


Off the Cuff: Awaking with a Whopper Hangover

Reality can be cruel
Friday, November 9, 2012, 12:06 PM

In this week's Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Mish and Chris discuss:

  • Post-Election Plunge
    • Why are the markets selling off so hard?
  • The Return of the EuroCrisis
    • It worsened while we ignored it.
  • The Fiscal Cliff
    • Will we drive off it? And at what speed?
  • Gold's Resurgence
    • Showing strength as investors demand safety

America awoke on Wednesday with the Presidential election finally over and talk from the re-elected incumbent of moving 'forward' again. » Read more


Four More Years

Predicting a global recession in 2013
Thursday, November 8, 2012, 10:51 AM

Obama has been re-elected. Given the hyperbole and highly emotional rhetoric of the election, it is hard to imagine that the U.S. is anything but slightly more divided than before, with the gaps and divisions widening more and more as time goes on.

The real tragedy in this story is that virtually none of the really big and important issues were even touched in this election cycle. One party pointed to how much they managed to increase military spending while the other promised to exceed even that. One side said they'd promote even faster drilling and extraction of our dwindling energy reserves and the other promised they could do it even faster. Both said they wanted more growth and more jobs and more, more, more. » Read more


Time to Focus on 'Return of Capital'

Reflections on the day after the election
Wednesday, November 7, 2012, 12:01 PM

I am more concerned with the return of my money than the return on my money.

- unknown (often attributed to Mark Twain or Will Rogers)

The U.S. Presidential race is now behind us. And this morning the world woke up and realized that all the issues the election postponed now lie before us.

In his victory speech, President Obama focused on moving 'forward': » Read more


Anticipating the Devolution of Big Government

Expect destructive feedback loops
Monday, October 29, 2012, 6:44 PM

With the US elections approaching next week, as well as the threat of another fiscal cliff showdown looming, we asked contributing editor Charles Hugh Smith to revisit his eariler work on how the expansive Central State has come to dominate both private society (i.e., the community) and the marketplace, to the detriment of the nation’s social and economic stability. » Read more


Off the Cuff: Picking Our Poison

At this stage, we're offered only toxic choices
Wednesday, October 17, 2012, 5:50 PM

In this week's Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Mish and Chris discuss:

  • The Presidential Debates
    • The only big winner is the status quo
  • Surprisingly Rosy Data
    • Reality? Or election year fudging?
  • The Universality of Human Behavior
    • Chris' UK trip reaffirms his confidence in his forecasts
  • Recession vs Higher Deficits
    • Picking our poison
  • Holding Gold
    • The trend is gaining in popularity

Despite the posturing and soundbyte zingers, both Chris and Mish do not find any substantial difference between the two presidential candidates when it comes to the Three Es. » Read more