economic growth



When This Ends, Everybody Gets Hurt

And the end is uncomfortably close
Wednesday, January 21, 2015, 10:45 PM

Central bank credibility (as fictitious as that may be) is essential to maintaining the current narrative, BUT central banks are rapidly losing their credibility (which should have happened simply via deductive reasoning a long time ago) and the strains are showing.

Their actions are increasingly wild and extreme, and it's our view that 2015- 2016 will mark the end of this long run of overly-ambitious central bankers and over-complacent markets. » Read more



Oil And The Global Slowdown

It's time for central banks to admit their failures
Wednesday, December 3, 2014, 7:08 PM

The world economy is slowing down and the authorities are fretting. 

Japan, Italy, Greece and Austria are all in recession.  China is slowing down according to their official statistics, and even more according to the whispers. 

Germany, France and the Netherlands are all at stall speed. 

The US is, according to the BLS, doing just great at nearly 4% growth, but you wouldn't know that from either the quality of the few jobs being created (which is low) or consumer spending (also low).  » Read more


National Archives and Records Administration (NARA)

The Environment: Depleting Resources - Crash Course Chapter 23

Why scarcity will define the future
Friday, November 28, 2014, 2:44 PM

The bottom line is this: we, as a species, all over the globe, have already mined the richest ores, found the easiest energy sources, and farmed the richest soils that our Environment has to offer.

We have taken several hundreds of millions of years of natural ore body, fossil energy deposition, aquifer accumulation, soil creation, and animal population growth -- and largely burned through them in the few years since oil was discovered. It is safe to say that in human terms, once these are gone, man, they’re gone. » Read more


Peak Prosperity

Energy & The Economy - Crash Course Chapter 22

Why society will be forced to become less complex
Friday, November 21, 2014, 8:17 PM

In the past few chapters on Energy EconomicsPeak Cheap Oil, and the false promise of Shale Oil, we've gone into great detail to show how our economic growth is deeply dependent on our energy systems.

Understanding the known facts behind this story, as well as each of the stated risks is what The Crash Course is about: assessing those risks and deciding what, if anything, a prudent adult should do about adapting to these realities and facing these risks. 



The Good News In All The Bad Data

A rare convergence of confidence in future developments
Friday, June 13, 2014, 12:14 AM

Today's financial markets make a mockery out of sanity and logic. The difference between what SHOULD happen and what IS happening is perhaps the greatest it has been in our investing lifetimes.

If you're perplexed, flummoxed, frustrated, stymied, enraged, bored, irritated, insulted, discouraged -- any or all of these -- by the ever-higher blind grinding of asset prices over the past several years, despite so many structural reasons for concern, you have good reason to be.


Abenomics' Dismal Anniversary

Why we need to care about Japan's continued decline
Tuesday, September 10, 2013, 12:39 PM

Abenomics, the radical set of reflationary policies designed to (air)lift Japan out of its multi-decade slump, is approaching its first anniversary. Don't expect a joyful celebration. » Read more


Gregor Macdonald: What the End of Cheap Oil Means

We better get smart about using our remaining fossil BTUs
Saturday, January 19, 2013, 5:09 PM

On the heels of Chris' recent report clarifying the global net energy predicament, he and contributing editor Gregor Macdonald sit down to talk in depth about the broken relationship between energy costs and economic growth.

For much of the twentieth century, the developed world saw a steady march upwards in wages and living standards, due primarily to huge quantities of cheap, high-yielding liquid hydrocarbon. As we find ourselves bumping along the plateau of Peak Oil's apex, suddenly we find "growth" is a lot harder to come by. » Read more


The Really, Really Big Picture

There isn't going to be enough net energy
Tuesday, January 15, 2013, 8:54 PM

[Many longtime followers of the Crash Course have asked Chris to update his forecasts for Peak Oil in light of the production increases in shale oil and gas over recent years. What started out as a modest effort at clarification morphed into a much more massive 3-report treatise as Chris sifted through mountains of new data that ultimately left him more convinced than ever we are facing a global net energy crisis despite misguided media efforts intended to convince us otherwise. His reports are being released in series over the next several weeks; the first installment is below.]

There has been a very strong and concerted public-relations effort to spin the recent shale energy plays of the U.S. as complete game-changers for the world energy outlook.  These efforts do not square up well with the data and are creating a vast misperception about the current risks and future opportunities among the general populace and energy organizations alike.  The world remains quite hopelessly addicted to petroleum, and the future will be shaped by scarcity – not abundance, as some have claimed.

This series of reports will assemble the relevant data into a simple and easy-to-understand story that has the appropriate context to provide a meaningful place to begin a conversation and make decisions. » Read more