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Grasshopper Nation: Planning For Those Who Aren't Prepared

Whom will you help? And how much will you be able to?
Friday, June 3, 2016, 9:40 PM

Our resources are finite. Most of us don't feel we have all that we require to meet our own needs and goals. And the best-laid preparations of the most planful of us can suddenly become woefully insufficient if too many unexpected family, friends and neighbors show up demanding our charity. » Read more

Podcast

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FerFAL: Understanding Societal Collapse

Warnings we should heed from Venezuela's crisis
Sunday, May 22, 2016, 1:18 PM

As we write about the risks of our over-indebted economy, of our unsustainable fossil fuel-dependent energy policies, and our accelerating depletion of key resources, it's not a far leap to start worrying about the potential for a coming degradation of our modern lifestyle -- or even the possibility of full-blown societal collapse.

Sadly, collapse is not just a theoretical worry for a growing number of people around the world. They're living within it right now.

This week, we catch up with Fernando "FerFAL" Aguirre, who began blogging during the hyperinflationary destruction of Argentina’s economy in 2001 and has since dedicated his professional career to educating the public about his experiences and observations of its lingering aftermath. Given his first-hand experience with living through, and eventually escaping, economic collapse in South America, we asked him to offer his insider's perspective on the current crisis in Venezuela, as well as the devolving situation in Brazil. » Read more

Blog

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The Year Of The Red Monkey: Volatility Reigns Supreme

To preserve capital, you need to outsmart the monkey
Friday, March 11, 2016, 3:16 PM

In the lunar calendar that started February 8, this is the Year of the Red Monkey. I found this description of the Red Monkey quite apt:

"According to Chinese Five Elements Horoscopes, Monkey contains Metal and Water. Metal is connected to gold. Water is connected to wisdom and danger. Therefore, we will deal with more financial events in the year of the Monkey. Monkey is a smart, naughty, wily and vigilant animal. If you want to have good return for your money investment, then you need to outsmart the Monkey. Metal is also connected to the Wind. That implies the status of events will be changing very quickly. Think twice before you leap when making changes for your finance, career, business relationship and people relationship."

(Source)

In other words, the financial world will be volatile. And few will have the agility and wile to outsmart the market-monkey. » Read more

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How The Seeds Of Revolution Take Root

What motivates a populace to rebel against a regime?
Friday, February 26, 2016, 11:48 AM

Fisher found that a wage/price cycle often ends in transformational social upheaval. While proponents of his model have a wealth of historical examples to draw upon, they miss a key factor:  the vulnerability or resilience of the nation-state facing crises.

Some nations survive invasions, environmental catastrophes, epidemics and inflation without disintegrating into disorder. Something about these nation’s social/ economic /political order makes them more resilient than other nations. So rather than accept the proximate causes of disorder as the sole factors, we should look deeper into the social order for the factors behind a nation’s relative fragility or resilience. » Read more

Insider

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Oil Is Sinking The Markets

Subprime comparisons are now too obvious to ignore
Monday, January 25, 2016, 7:47 PM

A vast, enormous amount of junk-rated oil debt is in deep trouble. Everybody knows this, but saying so has been taboo up until now, at least in polite conversations.

But the parallels to the sub-prime market's role as the "pin that popped the bubble" in 2008 are now too obvious to ignore. » Read more

Blog

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The Deflation Monster Has Arrived

And it sure looks angry
Friday, January 15, 2016, 8:53 PM

As we’ve been warning for quite a while (too long for my taste): the world’s grand experiment with debt has come to an end. And it’s now unraveling.

Just in the two weeks since the start of 2016, the US equity markets are down almost 10%. Their worst start to the year in history. Many other markets across the world are suffering worse.

If you watched stock prices today, you likely had flashbacks to the financial crisis of 2008. At one point the Dow was down over 500 points, the S&P cracked below key support at 1,900, and the price of oil dropped below $30/barrel. Scared investors are wondering:  What the heck is happening? Many are also fearfully asking: Are we re-entering another crisis? » Read more

Insider

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Why This Next Crisis Will Be Worse Than 2008

And what you can do to prepare
Friday, January 15, 2016, 8:53 PM

Executive Summary

  • There are too many signs of deflation to deny it's winning the day
  • Why China's weakening will accelerate the global economy's decent
  • Why this next crisis will be worse than 2008
  • What will it look like if things really get out of control (how bad could things get?)
  • The best investments to be making now, before the rout

If you have not yet read The Deflation Monster Has Arrived, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Too Many Warning Signs To Talk About

The deflationary monster is here and there are almost too many warning signs to list, let alone fully describe.

So I’ll just list and link them…you can follow up on the details if you want, it’s the ‘general vibe’ I want to get across.

Here are the signs of a weak economy that we are dealing with:

The pattern here is one of rapidly slowing economic activity and mounting pain starting “from the outside in” as emerging markets and the poor people within the core countries bear the brunt at first. Things always get rolling to the downside starting with the weakest, peripheral elements first.

Copper and oil are providing very clear signs that economic activity is not just slow, but in rapid retreat. Wal-Mart tells us that its shoppers are having trouble. The fresh all-time lows in a variety of currencies, plus massive weakness in others, is telling us that the virtuous portion of the liquidity cycle that the Fed, et al., unleashed on the world has entered the vicious part of the cycle.

The pain will spread to the center with increasing speed. The main question is if the authorities can stop that before the momentum becomes too great to halt? And what will happen if they cannot?

The answer to that is... » Read more

Blog

Markets Are Correcting Hard

An assessment of the risks of things getting worse from here
Friday, January 8, 2016, 1:41 AM

The long-awaited global financial market correction has arrived. We are seeing collapses in all major markets and across all major categories.

As usual, the pain has started at the edges, in the weaker elements (emerging markets, junk bonds, weak companies, etc.) and is rapidly spreading towards the center. » Read more

Insider

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Ocean Acidification: An Ecological Nightmare

A far as global crises go, it's a doozy
Monday, April 13, 2015, 9:10 PM

The oceans are facing numerous difficulties including pollution (especially from farm run off), over-fishing, and dragnet methods that ruin innumerable other things besides the targeted catch -- but all of that pales in comparison to the problem of ocean acidification. » Read more

Podcast

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Steve Keen: The Deliberate Blindness Of Our Central Planners

Choosing to ignore the largest risks
Sunday, March 29, 2015, 12:20 PM

The models we use for decision making determine the outcomes we experience. So, if our models are faulty or flawed, we make bad decisions and suffer bad outcomes.

Professor, author and deflationist Steve Keen joins us this week to discuss the broken models our central planners are using to chart the future of the world economy. » Read more