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The US Housing Market's Darkening Data

Get ready for the return of declining home prices
Tuesday, June 3, 2014, 12:15 AM

The more we look at today's data, the more it looks like that we are in a new type of pricing cycle -- one that homeowners and housing investors have no prior experience with.

And the more we learn about the fundamentals underlying the current cycle, the harder it becomes to justify today's home prices on any sustained level. Meaning a downward reversion in home values is very probable in the coming years. » Read more

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The US Shale Oil Miracle Disappears

The Monterey formation was just downgraded by 96%
Wednesday, May 21, 2014, 8:02 PM

The US shale oil "miracle" has about as much believability left as Jimmy Swaggart. Just today, we learned that the EIA has placed a hefty downward revision on its estimate of the amount of recoverable oil in the #1 shale reserve in the US, the Monterey in California.

As recently as yesterday, the much-publicized Monterey formation accounted for nearly two-thirds of all technically-recoverable US shale oil resources.

But by this morning? The EIA now estimates these reserves to be 96% lower than it previously claimed. » Read more

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Rising Resource Costs Escalate Odds of Global Unrest

The critical 40% income-to-food threshold
Tuesday, May 13, 2014, 9:34 PM

As we observe the growing unrest in Ukraine, there is the usual rush to ascribe a cause. Was it meddling by the West? Russia? Was it corruption by prior leaders? Simmering resentments that stretch back centuries that finally erupted?

The answers apply to Ukraine as well as to many other countries. Which is why having an accurate framework, a clear 'lens' for seeing what is actually transpiring, will prove far more useful to you than 99% of what you will hear on the ni » Read more

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The Rise of New Models of Community

Why they're emerging & what they need to succeed
Wednesday, May 7, 2014, 11:14 AM

In my previous series on the erosion of community, I surveyed a number of conventional explanations for this decades-long trend and discussed 10 other potential factors in the decline of social capital. I concluded that economic need would likely be the driver of a resurgence of community—a need that will only become apparent when the Central State and the debt-based, consumerist-corporate system are no longer able to fulfill their implicit promises of welfare, subsidies, endless credit and secure jobs. In this next installment on community, we look at the possibility that new models are arising beneath the mainstream media’s master narratives that Everything’s fine and The Status Quo is both good and eternal. » Read more

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Warning: Ukraine Is At A Flashpoint

The stability between Russia & the West is failing
Sunday, May 4, 2014, 12:16 AM

Regrettably I am very close to issuing an official Alert over the situation in Ukraine.  The situation has continued to both escalate and deteriorate and more than 50 people died on Friday, May 2 in violence in Odessa and other eastern cities in Ukraine.  Relations between Russia and the US are finding new lows while China and Russia grow closer. 

For those living in Europe who are exposed to the possible fallout that would result from the loss of supplies of Russian energy, the time to begin your preparations is right now. » Read more

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What The Bears Still Left Standing Think

Takeaways from the 2014 Wine Country Conference
Saturday, May 3, 2014, 12:39 PM

The Wine Country Conference (WCC) is an annual gathering of speakers organized by Mike "Mish" Shedlock and his advisery firm, Sitka Pacific. This year's speakers included: John Hussman, Steen Jakobsen, Axel Merk, Mebane Faber, Chris, and of course, Mish himself. Our good friend Charles Hugh Smith attended, as well. » Read more

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The State of the Deep State

The monster in America’s closet
Wednesday, April 30, 2014, 8:43 AM

We’ve been hearing a lot about the so-called Deep State lately. What to make of this shadowy monster? Some observers link it to the paranoid fantasy called the New World Order, a staple of political talk radio (and a hobgoblin I don’t believe in). 

I like to say that I’m allergic to conspiracy theories because human beings are generally too inept to carry out schemes at the grand scale, as well as being poor secret-keepers. Insider knowledge is almost always swapped around, even in secretive organizations, often recklessly so, because doling it out confers status, tactical advantage, and sometimes money for the doler-outer. But the Deep State isn’t a secret. It operates in plain sight. » Read more

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When Every Country Wants to Sell, Who Buys?

The world is trapped in a quest for 'Demand'
Tuesday, April 22, 2014, 12:14 PM

Understandably for the US, which sustained a consumption supercycle for several decades, the post-financial crisis period has kicked off a new trend: Americans want to consume less, and make more.

Americans want to own less stuff, use less energy, and produce their own goods. In short, Americans want to sell» Read more

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US Gas Will Never Replace Russian Gas For Europe

Economically & energetically implausible
Friday, April 18, 2014, 3:10 PM

Recent entreaties by various US politicians to help wean Europe off of Russian gas are simply preposterous.  The numbers don't add up, and they never will.

Let's begin with the facts: » Read more

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Doing It for Science

Dan Ariely needs our help
Tuesday, April 15, 2014, 12:07 PM

Renown behavioral economist Dan Ariely has approached Peak Prosperity regarding new research he's conducting. » Read more