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The Case for a Crash

And for staying in cash until 2015
Tuesday, December 10, 2013, 4:24 PM

We’ve recently been treated to two mutually exclusive forecasts: that the Great Bull Market will run until 2016 or 2018, so no worries; and that markets are exhibiting bubble-like characteristics that presage another crash.

So which forecast is more likely the correct one? » Read more

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There Is Too Little Gold in the West

The history of gold's flight to the developing world
Friday, December 6, 2013, 1:53 AM

Western central banks have tried to shake off the constraints of gold for a long time, which has created enormous difficulties for them. They have generally succeeded in managing opinion in the developed nations but been demonstrably unsuccessful in the lesser-developed world, particularly in Asia. It is the growing wealth earned by these nations that has fuelled demand for gold since the late 1960s. There is precious little bullion left in the West today to supply rapidly increasing Asian demand. It is important to understand how little there is and the dangers this poses for financial stability. » Read more

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The Wisdom of Looking Like an Idiot Today

Now is the time to act with the courage of our convictions
Tuesday, December 3, 2013, 10:42 AM

Perhaps you still remember the speed and depth of the 2008 credit crisis' arrival, and its toxic impact on asset prices, jobs, and overall trust in the financial system. Maybe you took notes during the preceding tech and housing bubbles and their aftermath. If so, you likely swore that "Never again!" would you put your wealth at risk during such obvious times of public mania.

So, if this sounds at all like you, five years after the 2008 crisis, how is the "prudent" strategy looking today? » Read more

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A World of Thanks

Taking stock of what matters
Thursday, November 28, 2013, 12:33 PM

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!  Below, Chris and I share our reasons for why we are so thankful this year. » Read more

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(Un)Paving Our Way To Nirvana

Making better choices in the future
Monday, November 25, 2013, 8:10 PM

You can’t overstate the baleful effects for Americans of living in the tortured landscapes and townscapes we created for ourselves in the past century. This fiasco of cartoon suburbia, overgrown metroplexes, trashed small cities and abandoned small towns, and the gruesome connective tissue of roadways, commercial smarm, and free parking is the toxic medium of everyday life in this country. Its corrosive omnipresence induces a general failure of conscious awareness that it works implacably at every moment to diminish our lives. » Read more

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What Happened to the Future?

Hopes dim as global net energy per capita declines
Tuesday, November 19, 2013, 2:15 PM

Improbably, the global economy has returned to growth over the past four years despite the ravages of a deflationary debt collapse, a punishing oil shock, ongoing constraint from debt and deleveraging, and stagnant global wages. The proof of this growth comes from the best indicator of all: the growth of global energy consumption. » Read more

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Our Era’s Definitive Dynamic: Diminishing Returns

Doing more of what doesn't work
Monday, November 4, 2013, 3:37 PM

We all intuitively grasp the meaning of diminishing returns: Either it takes more effort to maintain a project’s payoff, or the payoff declines even though the effort invested remains constant.

This dynamic leads to the final phase of doing more of what has failed spectacularly. » Read more

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The Fed Can Only Fail

And we'll all lose
Friday, October 25, 2013, 12:34 AM

The basic predicament we are in is that the current crop of leaders in the halls of monetary and political power does not appear to understand the dimensions of our situation.

The mind-boggling part about all this is that it's not really all that hard to grasp.

Our collective predicament is simply this: Nothing can grow forever. » Read more

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Growth is Obsolete

Society needs to realize growth does not equal prosperity
Tuesday, October 15, 2013, 8:19 PM

Despite the wishful thinking and happy-talk propaganda lighting up the media-space, we have arrived at the problematic point of the story: the end of cheap oil. The sad, stark fact is that oil is now too expensive to permit further expansion of economies and populations.  » Read more

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Live Blogging the Casey Summit 2013 Conference (Day 2)

More of what Chris & Adam are hearing
Saturday, October 5, 2013, 11:48 AM

Breakfast is over, and Chris and I are sitting down for Day 2 of the Casey Research 2013 Conference in Tucson. Here's what we're hearing.

(To read what we heard on Day 1, click here) » Read more