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Rather than attempt to predict the unpredictable – that is, specific events and price levels – let’s look instead for key dynamics that will play out over the next two to three years. Though the specific timelines of crises are inherently unpredictable, it is still useful to understand the eventual consequences of influential trends.

In other words: policies that appear to have been successful for the past four years may continue to appear successful for a year or two longer. But that very success comes at a steep, and as yet unpaid, price in suppressed systemic risk, cost, and consequence. » Read more

Background

I was just trying to figure it all out.

~ Michael Burry, hedge fund manager

Every December, I write a Year in Review that has now found a home at Chris Martenson’s website PeakProsperity.com.^1,2,3 What started as a simple summary intended for a couple dozen people morphed over time into a much more detailed account that accrued over 25,000 clicks last year.⁴ 'Year in Review' is a bit of a misnomer in that it is both a collage of what happened, plus a smattering of issues that are on my radar right now. As to why people care what an organic chemist thinks about investing, economics, monetary policy, and societal moods I can only offer a few thoughts.

For starters, in 33 years of investing with a decidedly undiversified portfolio, I had only one year in which my total wealth decreased in nominal dollars. For the 13 years beginning 01/01/00—the 13 toughest investing years of the new millennium!—I have been able to compound my personal wealth at an 11% annualized rate. This holds up well against the pros. I am also fairly good at distilling complexity down to simplicity and seem to be a congenital contrarian. I also have been a devout follower of Austrian business cycle theory—i.e., free market economics—since the late 1990s.⁴

Each review begins with a highly personalized analysis of my efforts to get through another year of investing followed by a more holistic overview of what is now a 33-year quest for a ramen-soup-free retirement. These details may be instructive for those interested in my approach to investing. The bulk of the review, however, describes thoughts and observations—the year’s events told as a narrative. The links are copious, albeit not comprehensive. Some are flagged with enthusiasm. Everything can be found here.⁵ » Read more

Background

(1) http://disgu.st/~jon/books/david_collum-30_years_investing.pdf

(2) http://www.peakprosperity.com/forum/david-b-collums-2010-year-review/50352

(3) http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/2011-year-review-david-collum/67586

(4) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_business_cycle_theory

(5) http://lmgtfy.com/?q=How+do+I+google+something%3F

  » Read more

When the new PeakProsperity.com site launched back in June, we introduced the 1.0 version of our new Groups functionality.

We knew it wasn't perfect, but we were (and still very much are) excited by the enhanced ability Groups offers our readers to connect around an interest and/or a location.

Over the past month, we've been able to invest in making several improvements to the Groups experience, two of which we want to highlight here: » Read more