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Ready Or Not...

The unsustainable status quo is ending
Thursday, September 25, 2014, 4:00 PM

If risk has been taken from where it belongs and instead shuffled onto central bank balance sheets, or allowed to be hidden by new and accommodating accounting tricks, has it really disappeared? In my world, risk is like energy: it can neither be created nor destroyed, only transformed or transferred. 

If reality no longer has a place at the table -- such as when policy makers act as if the all-too-temporary shale oil bonanza is now a new permanent constant -- then the discussions happening around that table are only accidentally useful, if ever, and always delusional. » Read more

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Assets & Liabilities - Crash Course Chapter 14

Why the US is deeply insolvent
Friday, September 19, 2014, 10:29 PM

Building on the previous chapter on the US' tremendous and exponentially-increasing debt, this chapter looks at the shocking shortfall between our nation's assets and its liabilities.

In short, America is deeply insolvent. We're just not admitting it yet. » Read more

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The Dollar May Remain Strong For Longer Than We Think

Why demand for it is higher than other fiat currencies
Tuesday, September 16, 2014, 10:50 PM

I have long been a dollar bull, not for any over-arching reasons based on inflation, deflation, rising geopolitical multi-polarity or any of the other issues that touch on the dollar’s valuation vis-à-vis other currencies. My analysis focuses on a few basics:  the dollar’s status as the global reserve currency, Triffin’s Paradox (a.k.a. Triffin’s Dilemma) and global capital flows into the dollar and dollar-denominated assets such as U.S. Treasury bonds. » Read more

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Peak Prosperity

Debt - Crash Course Chapter 13

There's just too damn much of it
Friday, September 12, 2014, 9:04 PM

The fundamental failing of today's global economy can be summarized simply: Too Much Debt

We have taken too much of it on, too fast, in too many markets around the world, to have any hope of making good on it. Not only does the math not work out, but also on a moral level » Read more

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Defying Gravity

The case for hedging against a market downturn
Wednesday, September 10, 2014, 12:05 AM

Today's markets exist in an Oz-like, fantasy world. For 5 years now, stock and bond prices have risen like Dorothy's balloon, without so much as a puff of downdraft to spoil the fun.

Everybody likes higher prices, so let's have them always go up! Forever!

Whether that can happen is a topic of current hot debate, though few think corrections have been permanently banished from the financial markets. » Read more

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Peak Prosperity

How Much Is A Trillion? - Crash Course Chapter 12

So big, humans really can't grasp it
Friday, September 5, 2014, 11:45 AM

One trillion is a big number. In this short video, we try to help you get a sense for just how big; but the reality is simply that the human brain can't really suitably comprehend magnitudes this large.

Which is why we should be concerned that the US' money supply has ballooned to over $12 trillion dollars over the past decade. And that its outstanding debts and liabilities are many multiples that amount. » Read more

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Where To From Here?

An analysis of the good, the bad & the ugly
Wednesday, September 3, 2014, 1:02 AM

The financial markets were certainly correct in dismissing that rather abysmal first quarter 2014 GDP print, no?  After all, the current 4.2% GDP growth snapback revision in Q2 is proof positive Q1 was just a one-off fluke. Right?

The fact is: for a good five years now, economic pundits have been both hoping for, and then repeatedly disappointed by, the US economy's inability to achieve "escape velocity”.

So what lies ahead for the US economy? And for the financial markets? Are things going to get better or worse from here? » Read more

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Inflation - Crash Course Chapter 11

Our devaluing dollars are a historically recent phenomenon
Friday, August 29, 2014, 6:36 PM

For close to 300 years, inflation in the US remained very subdued. Small spurts occurred around major wars (Revolutionary, Civil, WW1, etc), but after each, inflation quickly trended back down to its long-term baseline. If you lived during this stretch of time, your money had roughly the same purchasing power your great-grandfather's did. » Read more

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I Blame The Central Banks

For the coming bond bubble disaster
Wednesday, August 27, 2014, 8:17 PM

The current bubble in financial assets -- in both equities and bonds of all grades and quality -- raging in every major market across the globe is no accident.

It's a deliberate creation. An intentional result of policy.

Therefore, when it bursts, we shouldn't regard the resulting damage as some freak act of nature or other such outcome outside of our control. To reiterate, the carnage will be the very predictable result of our terribly shortsighted decision-making and defective logic. » Read more

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Peak Prosperity

Quantitative Easing - Crash Course Chapter 10

What exactly is this process that the world is betting on?
Friday, August 22, 2014, 9:34 PM

At the exponential pace at which the Fed is increasing the money supply, and knowing the huge challenges the Fed – and most other world central banks  - face in trying to stop or even slow down their money printing, the potential for a disruptive global inflationary period is very real.

So what exactly is quantitative easing» Read more