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Dreamstime

Why Gold Is Undervalued

And poised to re-price upwards from here
Wednesday, October 22, 2014, 11:31 AM

Gold has been in a bear market for three years. Technical analysts are asking themselves whether they should call an end to this slump on the basis of the "triple-bottom" recently made at $1180/oz, or if they should be wary of a coming downside break beneath that level. The purpose of this article is to look at the drivers of the gold price and explain why today's market value is badly reflective of gold's true worth. » Read more

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How The Federal Reserve Is Purposely Attacking Savers

But bungling badly as it does
Monday, October 20, 2014, 11:36 AM

There's something we 'regular' citizens wrestle with that the elites never seem to: a sense of moral duty.

In a perfect world, we would honor our debts and obligations, every one of us. But the world is an imperfect place ,and moral obligation is something that almost never enters into the decision matrix of our society's richest. Or the banking industry.
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Fuzzy Numbers - Crash Course Chapter 18

How we're deluding ourselves with bad data
Friday, October 17, 2014, 8:58 PM

What if it turned out that our individual, corporate and government decision-making was based on misleading, if not provably false, data?

As we detail in this latest chapter of the Crash Course series, that's exactly the case today with the key indicators (inflation, GDP, employment, deficits, etc) our central planners are using to guide the future of the global economy. » Read more

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Ebola!

How worried should you be?
Wednesday, October 15, 2014, 8:35 AM

What Ebola reminds us of is that when a true pandemic arrives it will travel much faster than those in the past (thanks to air travel being an order of magnitude faster than dawning recognition) and that our complex, highly leveraged, just-in-time global economy is utterly unprepared for even a minor glitch in the flow of goods let alone the virtual lockdown that a true pandemic would require.

A small amount of preparing can make you much less vulnerable should (when?) that comes to pass. » Read more

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Gravity Returns - The Market Drops Nearly 5% in 3 Days

Years-long trends are finally breaking
Monday, October 13, 2014, 6:14 PM

A month ago, in an analysis titled Defying Gravity, I wrote about the unsustainable state of the stock market's high prices.

In it, I noted how the stock market had risen for an aberrantly-long time time without a correction, and that it hadn't even tested its 200-daily moving average price once since the beginning of 2012: » Read more

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Understanding Asset Bubbles - Crash Course Chapter 17

Why they form & how they pop
Friday, October 10, 2014, 6:21 PM

Through the long sweep of history, the bursting of asset bubbles has nearly always been traumatic.  Social, political and economic upheavals have a bad habit of following asset bubbles, while wealth destruction is a guaranteed feature. » Read more

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The Schizophrenia Tormenting Our Society & Economy

Look no further than the TV
Tuesday, October 7, 2014, 8:51 PM

What can popular television programs tell us about the zeitgeist (spirit of the age) of our culture and economy? 

It’s an interesting question, as all mass media both responds to and shapes our interpretations and explanations of changing times. It’s also an important question, as mass media trends crystallize and express new ways of understanding our era. » Read more

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Peak Prosperity

A National Failure to Save & Invest - Crash Course Chapter 16

Compounding the challenge of Too Much Debt
Friday, October 3, 2014, 6:08 PM

As detailed in earlier chapters, the US' debts and unfunded liabilities far exceed its assets. But making matters worse, the country is suffering from a prolonged failure to save and invest -- both at the personal and national level.

Being over-indebted and under-capitalized is a recipe for hardship as we move into the future, especially if economic growth is going to be harder to come by (which we forecast in the upcoming chapters on net energy). Each year we continue this deficit makes us less able to withstand systemic shocks (a 2008-style financial crisis, an energy shock, the outbreak of war), some number of which lie undoubtedly ahead at some point. » Read more

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Demographics - Crash Course Chapter 15

Age distribution is too lopsided to support entitlements
Friday, September 26, 2014, 5:21 PM

Our national demographic architecture no longer can afford the entitlement system we have. And that's even assuming entitlements were currently sufficiently funded. But as the last chapter showed, the existing programs are underfunded to the tune of $100-200 Trillion.  » Read more

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Ready Or Not...

The unsustainable status quo is ending
Thursday, September 25, 2014, 3:00 PM

If risk has been taken from where it belongs and instead shuffled onto central bank balance sheets, or allowed to be hidden by new and accommodating accounting tricks, has it really disappeared? In my world, risk is like energy: it can neither be created nor destroyed, only transformed or transferred. 

If reality no longer has a place at the table -- such as when policy makers act as if the all-too-temporary shale oil bonanza is now a new permanent constant -- then the discussions happening around that table are only accidentally useful, if ever, and always delusional. » Read more