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Which Countries Will Be Tomorrow's Winners & Losers?

Resources, capital flows & demographics will be key
Friday, May 13, 2016, 8:23 PM

The dictum “demographics is destiny” proposes that all the complexities of finance, society and politics are ultimately guided by demographics: the relative size of each generation, birth rates, death rates, etc.

Where does this lead? If geography and demographics have already defined which nations will be attractive to capital and most likely to accumulate productive capital in their domestic economy, and those nations that will struggle due to high costs and low rates of capital investment, in effect Nature (geography) and Culture (demographics) have already picked tomorrow’s winners and losers. » Read more

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The Inevitability Of Unintended Consequences

Why central planning efforts will ultimately backfire
Tuesday, May 10, 2016, 2:04 AM

Anyone involved with managing projects, people or systems knows that the only thing that can be planned with absolute certainty is that things will never go 100% according to plan.

This is true even in exceedingly simple situations, which we've written about at length here at Peak Prosperity (the uncontrollable nature of the straightforward Beer Game detailed in this post on the Bullwhip Effect outlines this well). And it's one of the truisms that gives us the most confidence that the world's central planners will eventually lose control of the global systems they are trying to manage via increasingly heavy-handed intervention. » Read more

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Chaos & Volatility On The Rise

The systems that support us are breaking down
Friday, May 6, 2016, 8:01 PM

No, that’s not a ‘click bait’ sensationalist article title. Things are getting ‘weird’ out there if you’re trying to be polite, and downright chaotic if you are being blunt.  Everywhere we look, we see signs that the systems that support us are breaking down. 

All of these are signs that the status quo has failed and continues to fail us. But the form of power expressed by our so-called ‘leaders’ today seems nearly incapable of healthy introspection coupled to correct action; preferring instead to do more of the same things that got us into this mess in the first place. » Read more

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Why We're So Unhealthy

Our system makes & keeps us sick
Friday, April 29, 2016, 7:31 PM

I was fortunate to attend a permaculture conference, 'Better Soil, Better Food...A Better World' at Tara Firma Farms in Petaluma, California this past weekend that Adam Taggart (co-founder of Peak Prosperity) was responsible for producing. Joel Salatin (author of nine books, including Everything I Want To Do Is Illegal: War Stories from the Local Food Front and head farmer at Polyface Farms, Virginia), Paul Kaiser (Singing Frogs Farm, Sonoma, California), Toby Hemenway (author of Gaia's Garden: A Guide to Home-Scale Permaculture, 2nd Edition), and Robb Wolf (author of The Paleo Solution: The Original Human Diet) were on hand to explain the connections between the way our food is grown, processed and distributed and our ill-health.

Though these connections are common sense—we all know about garbage in, garbage out—the linkage between our extractive, monoculture agriculture and all the other subsystems of food and health remains opaque to most Americans. » Read more

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Automating Ourselves To Unemployment

How shortsighted policies are creating a long-term crisis
Wednesday, April 27, 2016, 9:39 PM

In this current era of central planning, malincentives abound. We raced to frack as fast we could for the quick money, while leaving behind a wake of environmental destruction and creating a supply glut that has killed the economics of shale oil. Our stock exchanges sell unfairly-fast price feeds for great sums to elite Wall Street high-frequency-trading firms, and as a result have destroyed investor trust in our financial markets.  The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates historically low to encourage banks to lend money out, yet instead the banks simply lever up to buy Treasurys thereby pocketing vast amounts of riskless free profit. The list goes on and on.

One particular malincentive has been catching my attention recently, one that feels especially pernicious because it does not seem easily reversible, if at all. For US employers both large and small, it's becoming increasingly less appealing to employ human labor.  » Read more

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We’re Not Going To Make It…

…without real sacrifice
Wednesday, March 30, 2016, 12:18 AM

Right now I'm on a Metro North train heading the NYC. I’ve been invited to sit on an advisory council at the UN on building a sustainable energy future.

I’ll let you know how the meeting goes, after I take a few selfies to immortalize the experience in case I'm not invited back.  » Read more

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Less Than 1 Month To Go!

Are you coming to this year's annual seminar?
Wednesday, March 16, 2016, 11:27 AM

If you've been thinking about attending this year's annual Peak Prosperity seminar in Rowe, MA, time is running out to make your decision. » Read more

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The Year Of The Red Monkey: Volatility Reigns Supreme

To preserve capital, you need to outsmart the monkey
Friday, March 11, 2016, 3:16 PM

In the lunar calendar that started February 8, this is the Year of the Red Monkey. I found this description of the Red Monkey quite apt:

"According to Chinese Five Elements Horoscopes, Monkey contains Metal and Water. Metal is connected to gold. Water is connected to wisdom and danger. Therefore, we will deal with more financial events in the year of the Monkey. Monkey is a smart, naughty, wily and vigilant animal. If you want to have good return for your money investment, then you need to outsmart the Monkey. Metal is also connected to the Wind. That implies the status of events will be changing very quickly. Think twice before you leap when making changes for your finance, career, business relationship and people relationship."

(Source)

In other words, the financial world will be volatile. And few will have the agility and wile to outsmart the market-monkey. » Read more

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Email Issues With Microsoft

Hotmail, Outlook, MSN & Live users please read
Monday, March 7, 2016, 11:13 PM

It's recently come to our attention that email services associated with Microsoft (Hotmail, Outlook, MSN, Live) have started blocking the Peak Prosperity server that sends out our emails.

Once we realized what was going on, we reached out to Microsoft to alert them and work to rectify things. We're relieved to say that as of today, our email communications to our Microsoft customers should be restored. » Read more

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How Rich Is Your Knowledge Capital?

The future will belong to those who know how to create value
Friday, March 4, 2016, 1:36 PM

It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.
~ Mark Twain

The Crash Course does a good job of explaining why we're heading into an uncertain future. One that will be defined by disruption and volatility.

How that change will unfold exactly is impossible to forecast. As Yogi Berra rightly quipped: It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future!

The best way to defend yourself against the risk of 'losing it all' is to have an important part of your wealth stored between your ears, where it can't be taken from you. » Read more