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Past Peak Oil - Why Time Is Now Short

Friday, May 27, 2011, 10:49 AM

Note:  With so much going on with Europe's debt crisis, the continuing disaster and economic contraction in Japan, and the potential for a very hard landing in the Chinese growth miracle (which is in the running as my favorite "black swan candidate" for 2011), I am going to return our attention to oil in this report.  The next report will assess the developing and unfolding debt crisis that will drag down most of the developed economies at some point, and this report will provide essential context for understanding why this result is inevitable and when it will occur.

The Next Oil Shock

The only thing that could prevent another oil shock from happening before the end of 2012 would be another major economic contraction.  The emerging oil data continues to tell a tale of ever-tightening supplies that will soon be exceeded by rising global demand.  This time, we will not be able to blame speculators for the steep prices we experience; instead, we will have nothing to blame but geology.

Back in 2009, I wrote a pair of reports in which I calculated that we’d see another price spike in oil by 2010 or 2011, based on some assumptions about global GDP growth rates, rates of decline in existing oil fields, and new projects set to come online.  Given the recent price spike in oil (Brent crude over $126, now at $115) and recent oil supply data, those predictions turned out to be quite solid (for reference, oil was trading in the low $60s at the time). 

One part I whiffed on was in my prediction that the world community would have embraced the idea of Peak Oil by now and begun adjusting accordingly, but that’s not really true except in a few cases (e.g. Sweden).  Perhaps things are being differently and more seriously considered behind closed doors, but out in public the dominant story line concerns reinvigorating consumer demand, not a looming liquid fuel crisis.

How the major economies can continue proceeding with a business-as-usual mindset given the oil data is really quite a mystery to me, but that’s just how things happen to be at the moment.

At any rate, with Brent crude oil having lofted over $100/bbl at the beginning of February and remained above that big, round number for four months now, we are already in the middle of a price shock.  It may not be a perfect repeat of the circumstances of the 2008 oil shock, but it's close enough that the risk of an economic contraction, at least for the weaker economies, is not unthinkable here.  Japan, now in recession and 100% dependent on oil imports, comes to mind.

Looking at the new data and reading even minimally between the lines of recent International Energy Agency (IEA) statements, I am now ready to move my ‘Peak Oil is a statistically unavoidable fact’ event to sometime in 2012, which tightens my prediction from the prior range of 2012-2013.

Upon this recognition, the next shock will drive oil to new heights that are currently unimaginable for most.  First, $200/bbl will be breached, then $300, and then more.  And these are in current dollar terms; any additional dollar weakness will simply be additive to the actual quoted price.  By this I mean that if oil were to trade at $200 but the dollar lost one half of its value along the way, then oil would be priced at $400. 

Stampeding Into a Box Canyon

In 2009, I wrote a special report on oil that explored the interplay between energy and the economy.  At that time, the stock market was in the tank, global growth was in a freefall, and things looked gloomy.

But I knew that thin-air money is not without its charms and that we’d experience a rebound of sorts.  Here’s what I wrote:

I am of the opinion that these trillions and trillions of dollars, which, along with their foreign equivalents, are being applied to “ease the credit crunch,” will eventually find their mark and deliver what feels like a legitimate rebound in activity.  All those trillions have to eventually go somewhere and do something. 

For now, debts are defaulting faster than the various central banks and governments can inject new money and borrowing activity into the system.  Banks aren’t lending because there are very few compelling loans to make, especially if future losses have to actually be carried by the bank making the loan. 

But this won’t be true forever.  Sooner or later, all the trillions of new dollars will trot out of the barn, begin to gallop, and then thunder off, creating the appearance of a healthy advance.

It will be a cruel illusion, though, as this stampeding herd of money is headed straight into a box canyon.

Money is only one component of growth.  As we’ve strenuously proposed, energy is a necessary prerequisite for growth.

(Source)

Well, here we are a couple of years later, with those trillions and trillions out of the barn and stampeding off trying to create some real and lasting economic growth.  As we score these efforts, it appears to us that the amount and type of growth that has been achieved is underwhelming, to say the least. 

Housing remains in a serious slump, wage-based income growth is poor, Europe remains mired in a serious debt crisis, Japan has slumped back into recession, and the US fiscal deficit is a structural nightmare.  Worse, GDP growth is relatively tepid and would be negative, deeply negative, without all the deficit spending and liquidity measures. 

As predicted, all that thin-air money, once released into the wild, had a mind of its own and created a serious bout of commodity inflation, especially in food and fuel, which is now seriously impacting the poor and middle classes. 

So it’s hard to call the trillions and trillions ‘well spent.’  I was hoping for better results.

Yet we can’t call the re-flation efforts a complete failure, as we are not in a serious, destructive deflation, and we’ve all been granted a bit more time to get ourselves prepared in whatever ways make sense. The gift of time has been invaluable, and for that I am grateful.  But in terms of creating a true and lasting economic miracle?  It turns out, once again, that 'printing' money electronically is no more effective than calling in the silver coin of the realm, making each unit slightly smaller, and then re-issuing it.  Real economic growth has not been created.

What has happened is that false demand, spurred on by trillions in thin-air money, has also spurred on renewed demand for oil, hastening the day that a geologically inspired supply/demand mismatch will finally arrive. 

We are driving at a high rate of speed into a box canyon.

World Crude Supply

Before we get into the specifics of where I think the immediate trouble lies in the world oil data, let's take a moment to look at the big picture.

There are a number of ways to look at the petroleum data.  The one I prefer to look at is something called 'crude + condensate' (C+C), which leaves out things like ethanol and natural gas liquids, both of which are converted to 'barrel of oil equivalents' (BOE) and added to the C+C to yield total liquid fuels.  The reason I like to focus on C+C is that this is mainly conventional oil, the cheap and easy stuff, and it gives us a better idea of where we are in the Peak Oil story.

Note:  This next cluster of charts comes from data from the U. S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) that I am, frankly, uncomfortable with, so take them all with a grain of salt.  The EIA upwardly revised the data for 2010 and added between 750,000 and 800,000 barrels per day of production to each month.  This is the largest upward revision of which I am aware, and it's not yet clear to me why this occurred.  Further, the EIA obtained some of that data from IHS, which is the parent company of CERA, the organization that best qualifies for the 'influential Peak Oil deniers of the decade' award. 

And somewhat ominously, as suspect as the data may be, it has been an important source for decades for analysts, myself among them.  Quite recently, the EIA has announced that, due to budget cutbacks, it will immediately terminate the collection and distribution of international energy statistics -- right at the exact moment they are needed most.  Ugh.  Very disappointing, and all due to a $15 million budget cut. (Source). This echoes the loss of the M3 monetary statistic, which turned out to be a perfect gold-buying signal.  If this is a parallel event, it means that now is a great time to take Peak Oil more seriously.

A chart of C+C reveals that the world has been bouncing along in a channel roughly between 72 and 74 mbd since 2005:

Yes, a new high was made in December 2010 and was exceeded in January 2011, offering hope that the world could break out of this limiting band of production, but then production fell back in February due to the Libyan conflict.  I have added a purple dotted line to reflect where the data will most likely be for March after subtracting out the Libyan losses and the Saudi cutbacks.  As you can see, we will be right back in the 72-74 channel.  

Some will be tempted to write this off to a temporary setback due to the unrest in North Africa, but such unrest has always been part of the equation: Iraq, Nigeria, Kuwait, and many other countries have experienced supply disruptions along the way due to war and/or civil unrest.

Note also in this chart that oil production fell off by more than 2 mbd as a consequence of the global recession between 2008 and 2009.  From the lows in August 2009, it has since climbed more than 2.4 mbd to its current level.

Where did those gains come from?  Can we expect more? 

There's a very interesting story in here if we dig down one more layer. This next pie chart shows each region's relative contribution to the gains of 2.4 mbd that happened between August 2009 and February 2011: 

In the above chart, I had to include negative percentages for two regions, which is an odd way to display things (how does one draw a negative pie wedge?), but it still all sums to 100%.  I've included the negatives for comparison purposes and because they are important to keep in view.  It's clear that the Middle East is the most important region; no surprise there. North America is about evenly split in gains between the US (Bakken) and Canada (tar sands), and Russia and China are the major players in their respective regions.

Taking the analysis one level deeper, here are the seven major countries that contributed 88% of the August 2009 to February 2011 gains (in thousands of barrels per day): 

Saudi Arabia is the hands-down leader, being responsible for 700,000 barrels per day, or 29%, of the entire gains logged in that period.

There is a variety of interesting sub-stories that could be told across each of the other countries, but it's time to focus on the big fish.

Saudi Arabia – Where There's Smoke, There's Fire

Something is seriously wrong with the signals coming from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), and I am of the opinion that KSA is having geological difficulties that are preventing it from pumping more oil.  Said plainly, I am of the mind that the KSA is already at peak.

One troubling bit of information is that Saudi Arabia justified its lowered oil output for March by claiming that the oil markets are oversupplied, even as Brent crude was perched above $120/bbl. There are several possibilities here:

  1. There really is an oil glut, and the KSA is being truthful.
  2. There is an oversupply, but only of the heavier, poorer grades of oil that the KSA has in relative abundance.
  3. The KSA can produce more, but doesn’t want to, preferring to withhold oil production in the interest of receiving higher prices.
  4. The KSA is already past peak and cannot pump more, despite its best efforts, and the oversupply issue is really just a cover story for the fact that the KSA cannot pump more even if it wanted to. 

Let’s start at the beginning of this odd tale.  Early in May, the KSA said this:

Saudi lifts April oil output to 8.5 mln bpd-sources

May 01, 2011

DUBAI/KHOBAR, Saudi Arabia, May 1 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia's crude oil output edged back up in April to around 8.5 million barrels per day (bpd) from roughly 8.3 million bpd in March as demand picks up, Saudi-based industry sources said on Sunday.

The kingdom slashed output by 800,000 bpd in March, due to oversupply, oil minister Ali al-Naimi said last month, adding that he expected production in April to be a little higher than March's level. 

So the story here is that the KSA claims to have 12.5 mbd of total capacity.  Therefore, meeting the Libyan shortfalls of 1.3 mbd should be simple enough; just open the taps and let it flow.  Yet the KSA barely cracked the 9 mbd mark, briefly, before falling back to 8.3 – 8.5 mbd, telling the world that this was a purposeful response to markets that were oversupplied.  That's one possibility.

Several analysts thought that perhaps the KSA was simply gaming the markets and trying to obtain the best possible prices:

Saudi unlikely to lift oil output quickly

May 3, 2011

WASHINGTON — Saudi Arabia is unlikely to boost oil production quickly to ease the rise of crude prices, because it needs high prices for its own increased spending, analysts at an international banking think tank said Tuesday. 

After producing 8.6 million barrels a day in 2010, the world's leading oil supplier will only kick up production to about 8.9 million barrels this year, said analysts at the Washington-based Institute of International Finance. 

"So far the production of crude oil in Saudi Arabia for the first quarter was around 8.7, 8.8 (million barrels a day). And recently some unconfirmed reports said that production dropped in March," said Garbis Iradian, the IIF's deputy director for Africa and the Middle East. 

"So we don't expect crude oil production in Saudi Arabia will rise over nine million barrels a day," he said.

While it's possible that the KSA production limitations are a matter of trying to engineer higher prices, one person I trust is Sadad Al-Husseini.  The former Aramco engineer, who has a lot of credibility in these matters, thinks that the production limits have more to do with the grades of available oil rather than any mercenary market tactics on the part of KSA.

Saudi Sweet Oil Supply Too Low to Offset Libya, al-Husseini Says

May 17, 2011

Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest crude exporter, won’t be able to produce enough low-sulfur blends to replace lost Libyan output for refiners in Europe, said Sadad al-Husseini, a former Saudi Aramco executive. 

The country doesn’t have enough Arab Super Light to create sufficient amounts of low-sulfur, or sweet, oil similar to Libya’s grades, al-Husseini, Aramco’s former executive vice president for exploration and development, said today by e-mail.

The basic problem is that each refinery is geared for a specific and relatively narrow band of crude oil feedstocks, with the specific gravity and sulfur content being the most critical factors.  So it is not as simple as the KSA pumping more heavy sour crude to offset the lost Libyan production.  This is yet another possible explanation, and it is far more believable to me than either oversupplied markets or a pricing strategy.

The somewhat shocking news that followed just a few days after the above article was the begging by the IEA for OPEC to lift production.  Such a frank admission or plea has never been made before.  Reading between the lines, we can suspect that a serious supply shortage is looming if more oil does not find its way to market soon.

International Energy Agency Urges Oil Producers to Lift Output

May 19, 2011

PARIS — Expressing “serious concern” about elevated crude prices, the International Energy Agency on Thursday called for an increase in world oil production. It was an unusual move that highlighted consumer countries’ frustration at the failure of oil-producing nations to lift output in the face of rising demand and tighter supply.

(...)

The agency’s monthly Oil Market Report, respected by industry practitioners, has recently been warning about tightening market conditions as supply has not caught up with strong demand.

Despite commitments from Saudi Arabia, the biggest producer, to use its spare capacity to increase output and replace the supplies lost because of the uprising in Libya, the cartel’s production is now running 1.3 million barrels a day below the level seen before the crisis, according to the I.E.A.

Although the New York Times has positioned this unusual call by the IEA as perhaps a bit of political maneuvering, I feel they missed the real picture by not spending more time characterizing the mismatch between supply and demand.  If that's true, then we have a near-perfect repeat of the 2008 situation, where, in the six quarters preceding the oil price spike, demand exceeded supply in five of those quarters.

Confirming this view recently was Goldman Sachs' energy division, which said:

While near-term downside risk remains as the oil market negotiates the slowdown in the pace of world economic growth, we believe that the market will continue to tighten to critical levels by 2012, pushing oil prices substantially higher to restrain demand.

Events in the Middle East and North Africa are having a persistent impact, which leads us to increase our oil price targets. We expect that the ongoing loss of Libyan production and disappointing non-OPEC production will continue to tighten the oil market to critically tight levels in early 2012, with rising industry cost pressures likely to be felt this year.

We are now embedding in our forecasts that Libyan production losses will lead to the effective exhaustion of OPEC spare capacity by early 2012. Consequently, we are raising our Brent crude oil price forecast to $115/bbl, $120/bbl, and $130/bbl on a 3, 6, and 12 month horizon.

(Source)

There’s a lot in there, including the idea that the unrest in the Middle East will be persistent, that non-OPEC production will continue to disappoint (which it should, as nearly every non-OPEC country is past peak), and that the more globally relevant Brent contract is the right one to quote now when discussing oil, not the US-centric WTIC contract.

So count Goldman Sachs among those that are now calculating an imminent supply-demand mismatch.

The End of Easy Oil

The really big news is that the Wall Street Journal finally ran an oil piece (on the front page, no less) acknowledging the difficulties involved in Saudi Arabia regarding oil production and the extraordinary efforts that are now underway to boost production by unlocking their remaining heavy oil reserves. 

The critical parts in this story revolve around the costs of getting this oil out of the ground (in terms of both energy and money), the decades it will take to get the oil out, and the clear implication that going after such oil tells us everything we need to know about where we are in the Peak Oil story in general (and specifically in Saudi Arabia).  All the better, easier, cheaper grades are already drilled and in production.  This is what's left:

Facing Up to End of 'Easy Oil'

WAFRA, Kuwait—The Arabian Peninsula has fueled the global economy with oil for five decades. How long it can continue to do so hinges on projects like one unfolding here in the desert sands along the Saudi Arabia-Kuwait border.

Saudi Arabia became the world's top oil producer by tapping its vast reserves of easy-to-drill, high-quality light oil. But as demand for energy grows and fields of "easy oil" around the world start to dry up, the Saudis are turning to a much tougher source: the billions of barrels of heavy oil trapped beneath the desert.

Heavy oil, which can be as thick as molasses, is harder to get out of the ground than light oil and costs more to refine into gasoline. Nevertheless, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have embarked on an ambitious experiment to coax it out of the Wafra oil field, located in a sparsely populated expanse of desert shared by the two nations.

That the Saudis are even considering such a project shows how difficult and costly it is becoming to slake the world's thirst for oil. It also suggests that even the Saudis may not be able to boost production quickly in the future if demand rises unexpectedly. Neither issue bodes well for the return of cheap oil over the long term.

The whole story is worth a read.  I’ve excerpted quite a bit because there’s so much important information in there that I wanted you to see.  Most importantly, the mainstream media in the US is finally waking up to the idea that all of the cheap and easy oil is gone.

They’ve not yet gotten to the appreciation of the idea of Net Energy, which is the real key to understanding why the future will not resemble the past, but they are edging ever closer. And they are beginning to circle around the idea that depletion in the fields that have driven the world’s economy for the past 50 years is a critical reality.

It’s not much of a hop, skip, and a jump from there to seeing it finally named for what it is:  Peak Oil, otherwise known as the geological reality that will resist all efforts at human ingenuity and technology because it is a matter of finite limits, not of willpower or optimism.

One thing I thought the article did an especially good job of was actually delving into the engineering realities involved in the project.  The article continues:

The Wafra project, however, is far more of a challenge than traditional steam projects. As in most of the Middle East, the oil at Wafra is trapped in a thick layer of limestone that also contains minerals that can build up inside pipes and corrode equipment.

An even bigger challenge is getting the two crucial elements for generating steam: water and a source of energy to boil it. Most successful steam projects are in places with easy access to relatively pure water and a cheap fuel source, usually natural gas. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have little of either.

With no fresh-water sources in the Arabian desert, Chevron has been forced to use salt water found in the same underground reservoirs as the oil. That water is full of contaminants that must be removed before it can be boiled and injected into the ground.

Finding the energy to boil the water will be even tougher. Chevron could use oil instead of natural gas—literally burning oil to produce oil—but that would burn profits, too. So the company likely will be forced to import natural gas from overseas, an expensive process that involves chilling it to turn it into a liquid, then shipping it thousands of miles.

Some experts are shaking their heads.

The hurdles include mineral buildups, corrosion, water impurities, and the energy costs of heating all that water into steam.  In short, getting this stuff out of the ground is going to be far more difficult and costly than prior efforts.  End of story.

The reality involved in getting at the non-conventional oil is really just a story of declining net energy; the red curtain will extend down into the luscious green space that represents the surplus energy available to society. Less net energy means less economic activity and complexity.  It means less growth.  Below a certain level, it means no growth at all.  And eventually it means persistent negative growth, a possibility not yet priced into any financial markets.

In some cases I have my concerns about whether these heroic efforts are worth the trouble at all.  Perhaps we should invest the same amount of energy, talent, and expertise in energy conservation efforts and technological development.

At this point in the timeline, it's imperative for each of us to ask ourselves: how well prepared are we for this post-Peak Oil future? Part II of this report: How To Position for the Next Oil Shock explores the probable impact the next energy crisis will have on key asset classes, employment, and society in general. As we've shown above, we likely have little time left. Use it wisely.

Click here to access Part II: How To Position for the Next Oil Shock (free executive summary; paid enrollment required to access).

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123 Comments

OctoberLandon's picture
OctoberLandon
Status: Member (Offline)
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Posts: 23
Easy to understand !

I love the way Chris takes very complex topics like this and makes them understandable for us "common" people!  Thank you Chris!

FireJack's picture
FireJack
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Posts: 156
I think we can all agree at

I think we can all agree at this point that world governments will continue to do the worst things they could coming into peak oil.

Trying to force the economy to grow by racking up bigger and bigger debts until it all falls apart is the only future I see right now. The recent majority win by the conservatives is proof of what people are looking for here in Canada. The number one thing on their chart "The economy!" My guess is that it's going to be a fast collapse as a result.

JamesRiverMartin's picture
JamesRiverMartin
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Posts: 1
Government/s

FireJack:  "I think we can all agree at this point that world governments will continue to do the worst things they could coming into peak oil."

This is why I think it urgent to engage the general public, within communities, and encourage a grassroots response to the various crises associated with Peak. We cannot expect government to do it for us.

Much benefit could come from relocalization of crucial parts of our economies, especially the food part, in advance of what "market forces" will force later.  That is, if there be any advance preparation time at all(!). Really, here in the USA we should have come much further down that road than we have already. 

I doubt that the debt in our national (USA) and global systems can ever be "serviced," or that there can be economic growth anytime in the next several decades. This means the basic needs delivery systems will fail unless we create an entirely new kind of financial system, and fast. It's up to citizens, independent of governments, to implace a viable bridge to a viable future. If governement decides to follow that lead, great. But we cannot risk depending on it.

plato1965's picture
plato1965
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Posts: 615
Solar furnaces perhaps ?

"Finding the energy to boil the water will be even tougher. Chevron could use oil instead of natural gas—literally burning oil to produce oil—but that would burn profits, too. So the company likely will be forced to import natural gas from overseas, an expensive process that involves chilling it to turn it into a liquid, then shipping it thousands of miles."

You've got blazing sun anway.. why not use it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_furnace

SagerXX's picture
SagerXX
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Posts: 2120
Bangup report!

I find these reports more important than ever, as I'm approaching a transitional moment (house sale & move?) and my wife & I have several other irons in the fire -- in addition to all the other "normal" prep stuff we have going on.  Reality checks becomes more valuable as we start to make serious choices and moves towards our Next Life.  Thank you!

Viva -- Sager

ewilkerson's picture
ewilkerson
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Posts: 390
Silver as a PM

Chris,

Would you please clarify your comments on silver.  I knew it was used in industry, too,  but I thought you felt more comfortable with it as  PM than you sounded in this article.

Thanks,

Ernest

Poet's picture
Poet
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Posts: 1844
Guest Posts

Thank you again for an excellent report! I noticed it was Guest Posted on ZeroHedge.com. Kudos!

It's also about time that the New York Times, a leading flagship of mass media, admitted to the end of "easy oil".

By the way, I want to bring to attention to what I consider a complementary Guest Post that I also saw today on ZeroHedge that I think captures well the money and credit flows issue between Asia and the United States. I think it is also a must-read, as it explains a lot, from a different schema.

Guest Post: The Economic Death Spiral Has Been Triggered
"For nearly 30 years we have had two Global Strategies working in a symbiotic fashion that has created a virtuous economic growth spiral. Unfortunately, the economic underpinnings were flawed and as a consequence, the virtuous cycle has ended.  It is now in the process of reversing and becoming a vicious downward economic spiral. One of the strategies is the Asian Mercantile Strategy.  The other is the US Dollar Reserve Currency Strategy.  These two strategies have worked in harmony because they fed off each other, each reinforcing the other. However, today the realities of debt saturation have brought the virtuous spiral to an end."
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-economic-death-spiral-has-be...

I think these two reports together - the one on Peak Oil, the other on Asia-U.S. trade and currency - are a Category 5 hurricane and and a Category 5 cyclone. Together they're building up for a huge slam, on top of everything else (demographics, debt, etc.).

Poet

Chart from above linked report. Click to enlarge chart in a new browser window:

Arthur Robey's picture
Arthur Robey
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
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Posts: 2506
Appologies.

It is getting harder to get the oil,

therefore

While the drillers ruin their augers, Chris augurs the runes.

Sorry. Incontinence, you understand.

jpetr's picture
jpetr
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
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Posts: 33
Silver

Chris

Gold the past 2 weeks is trading more like a currency less affected by seasonal demands as jewelry. I have been super cautious about jumping into more gold right now until today - for reasons mentioned in your "Rout" article and seasonality The first signal of a buy was given on Tuesday and today further technical analysis verified entry. Of course Fed Governor Bullard hinting at more monetary easing did not hurt.  I doubt we will see 1450 or 1400 support taken out.

If we apply same rationale to silver, its label as 50% industrial will be short lived- esp once gold drags it up. Silver is also regarded as a currency as you know. It's no secret that states like Utah and many others are looking at allowing gold and silver as alternate currencies

Granted gold will outperform silver in the short term however, I doubt silver will be pulled down for long like other industrial metals.

Damnthematrix's picture
Damnthematrix
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Latest Fatih Birol interview on NZ Radio

Latest Fatih Birol interview on NZ Radio

WE NEED FOUR NEW SAUDI ARABIAS.

http://podcast.radionz.co.nz/ntn/ntn-20110525-0922-is_the_age_of_cheap_oil_over-048.mp3

Damnthematrix's picture
Damnthematrix
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Posts: 3998
Horse-drawn rubbish carts

Horse-drawn rubbish carts make a comeback for Suez Environnement

Horse-drawn rubbish carts are making a comeback - decades after the demise of the rag-and-bone man - in new trials by Suez Environnement, the European waste and recyling company. Suez Environnement, the owner of Sita UK, is trying out the new horse-drawn bin lorries in cities across France - saving petrol money and therefore carbon
dioxide emissions.

The company, which collects the bins for 62 UK councils, said initial data from the regions shows that people are recycling 15pc to 17pc more waste than before, as they are reminded of the need to be eco-friendly. "It seems as though the mere presence of horses makes households think and act with more of an environmental conscience," a spokesman said. The first areas in France to see horses trotting the streets to collect waste are Beauvais three parishes near Troyes, Verdun, Vendargue and Sezanne, where collections started in April and May this year. If the trials are successful, the use of horses could be expanded further across Suez's operations in suitable locations.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/8536374/Horse-drawn-rubbi\
sh-carts-make-a-comeback-for-Suez-Environnement.html

Damnthematrix's picture
Damnthematrix
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Posts: 3998
Saudi Arabia at peak??

Chris wrote:

Something is seriously wrong with the signals coming from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), and I am of the opinion that KSA is having geological difficulties that are preventing it from pumping more oil.  Said plainly, I am of the mind that the KSA is already at peak.

Damnthematrix's picture
Damnthematrix
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 10 2008
Posts: 3998
The Party's Over guys...

"Finding the energy to boil the water will be even tougher. Chevron could use oil instead of natural gas—literally burning oil to produce oil—but that would burn profits, too. So the company likely will be forced to import natural gas from overseas, an expensive process that involves chilling it to turn it into a liquid, then shipping it thousands of miles."

If EVER you needed an example of lower ERoEI.......  this is IT!  This example is a great one of clutching at straws.

The Party's Over guys...

Mike

Woodman's picture
Woodman
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Posts: 1027
More Oil Turmoil podcast

Last Tuesday's program on New Hampshire Public Radio's The Exchange discussed speculators, political, geological, and economic issues around gas prices, download thru iTunes or here:

http://www.nhpr.org/more-oil-turmoil

I sense some growing discussion in the media, but not yet a significant awareness of how significant peak oil could be.  Last time gas prices were over $4/gal I noticed people driving noticeably slower; this time folks seem more accepting of the recent price increases and are still driving their SUVs at 80 mphg on the highway.  We seem to need to feel the real pain of shortages before we really start making the big changes needed.

Wendy S. Delmater's picture
Wendy S. Delmater
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Joined: Dec 13 2009
Posts: 1587
use the time wisely

Thant you Chris. And thanks for the link, Poet. Good article.

We have been granted a reprive, however short. Use the time wisely. You will be kicking yourself if you do not make every minute count in some small way from now until the midnight hour.

Meanwhile - Mike: eco-friendly horse-drawn rubbish carts? Wow.

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Preparations for the Rout and after

You wanted some comments of what we have done to prepare   I really have let Chris's advice guide me in my specific situation.  I live in a small city near a much larger one, so tackling security first I have:

  • Replaced all flood lights with new motion sensor ones.
  • Replaced my entire alarm system covering the house much better.
  • Put motion sensors on some interior lights.
  • Purchased a pistol and shotgun.  That is something I never thought I would do.
  • Well supplied on rechargeable batteries and the new LED flashlights, and I found a great LED lantern by AC Delco which lasts 300 hrs on 3 size D batteries.  I highly suggest it.  You can find them at Home Depot or Amazon.
  • I am getting ready to replace all my 45 yr old windows.
  • I have a good supply of bulbs of all types, duct tape, and anything else I could see in Home Depot that may come in handy.
  • Purchased a good supply of first aid materials.

As for food:

  • I have gotten a pretty deep pantry.  I've purchased eight of the six gallon containers of dried beans, etc. from the Ready Store.
  • I've stocked up on some canned meats and such from Sam's Club.
  • Plenty of coffee..LOL
  • Anytime canned fruits, beans or something useful is on sale I buy a load.
  • I have a good supply of paper products.
  • I purchased a kerosene stove.
  • I am keeping a stash of updated seeds, starting pans for them, and a grow light system to start the seeds in.
  • I have started composting, planted some fruit trees, and trying my hand at sweet potatoes.  I understand many people survived on them during the depression.

Monetarily:

  • The stocks I have left are mostly domestic or Canadian oil and gas stocks.  Otherwise, I am slowly moving more into PMs.  I'm going to be about 40% PMs.  I'm betting the stock market will not completely collapse or that pure energy stocks will do well.  Mine are leaning towards some of the Canadian oil companies, and gas companies which are concentrating on NG liquids.
  • I have done the conversion to PMs slowly because I never thought I would be one to buy them but getting ready to sell another oil stock and buy some more after QE2..
  • I have a stash of cash and older coins with the higher silver content.
  • I have made one large purchase of the liquor mini-bottles for bartering and am going to add to that.

For transportation I have purchased a moped and a couple extra gas cans to get around town.  Monday I am replacing the tires on my car.

That's the majority.  Any suggestions?  I would love for someone to answer whether silver has gotten to be basically a PM or not.  I have leaned towards it figuring it used to be coinage so it will again  or already is.

The main problem I have had is finding anyone else around here that can understand Peak Oil.  Many people figure it will be Obama who will collapse the Country.

Best wishes to everyone, and if you have any questions I might help you with please ask.

Ernest

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Read this analysis over at Zero Hedge...

It was not obviously labelled so I hadn't a clue who wrote. I did, however, find myself pondering how much this guy understands the problem. Alas, it's you.

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We are so lucky to have you

We are so lucky to have you Chris. And I very much appreciate the contributors to the site and everyone working towards preparations. Still, I am so in awe of this sophisticated and detailed analysis.

I am taking baby steps today:

1. got 2 kindle books (Mother Jones and "For Dummies" series) on solar heating and started reading the "for dummies" version

2. looking into local CSA's for my produce since I cannot have a real garden right now.

3. preparing to taking public transportation now so I am used to it when gas gets into double digitsFrown

4. talking to those who will listen to get their ideas on how to prepare (shoulda done this a while ago)

5. setting up my blackout curtains and small fans to cool my home in case it gets too expensive to run the AC. I am preparing for a very hot and humid summer but who knows....tin foil on my windows is the emergency option for superhot days, it looks crazy but works quite well when the temps are over 100.

Take care all

Denise

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Why Not Solar Hot Water in KSA?

I'm confused??  Why would they use oil or gas for  heating water?  I would think there is enough sun in KSA to heat all of the water they can find.    . . . acomfort

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string
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Jeff Rubin talk at CIGI Nov 2010

worth a listen.

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Solar Steam is being used for oil extraction

plato1965 wrote:

You've got blazing sun anway.. why not use it.

Chevron is definitely aware of using solar for this type of thing.  I believe the plant in the article below is operational, but I couldn't find a more recent useful link.

Brightsource Snags Chevron Deal in Stealthy Move Into Solar Steam

Disclosure: I'm invested  in Brightsource.

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Canada

Are you from Canada?  The reason I ask is because I am planning to migrate to British Columbia next year.  With Canada's supply of oil sand and BCs push for renewable energy, I figured that it will be a good place to live when peak oil occurs.  Do you think Canada is making the same mistakes that the US is making?

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Oil Stocks

Chris,

What is your outlook for oil stocks?  Is this a good time to hold them, trade them through the oil price shocks, or to sell them because they will get dragged down with the other stocks?

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Technology will save us?

How the major economies can continue proceeding with a business-as-usual mindset given the oil data is really quite a mystery to me, but that’s just how things happen to be at the moment.

Here's how - The analyst speaking in this May 26, 2011 Blloomberg podcast on oil and gas prices when asked about  Peak Oil simply dismissed it because the PO Theory assumes  that technological will not develop new energy supplies

http://www.bloomberg.com/podcasts/taking-stock/

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ewilkerson wrote: As for

ewilkerson wrote:

As for food:

  • I have gotten a pretty deep pantry.  I've purchased eight of the six gallon containers of dried beans, etc. from the Ready Store.
  • I've stocked up on some canned meats and such from Sam's Club.
  • Plenty of coffee..LOL
  • Anytime canned fruits, beans or something useful is on sale I buy a load.
  • I have a good supply of paper products.
  • I purchased a kerosene stove.
  • I am keeping a stash of updated seeds, starting pans for them, and a grow light system to start the seeds in.
  • I have started composting, planted some fruit trees, and trying my hand at sweet potatoes.  I understand many people survived on them during the depression.

Hoarding ANYTHING will do you no good at all, eventually.  You WILL run out of food WTSHTF.

The best place to store food is in the ground.....

If you can't get used to that idea, well you will be a casualty.

Mike

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Dutch disease

phillipsd wrote:

Are you from Canada?  The reason I ask is because I am planning to migrate to British Columbia next year.  With Canada's supply of oil sand and BCs push for renewable energy, I figured that it will be a good place to live when peak oil occurs.  Do you think Canada is making the same mistakes that the US is making?

Two words: Dutch disease

Samuel

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Sweet Potato Leaves

Damnthematrix wrote:

I have started composting, planted some fruit trees, and trying my hand at sweet potatoes.  I understand many people survived on them during the depression.

Folks may already know that sweet potato leaves are edible and nutritious. They grow prolific and you can cook them and eat them. My mother has a patch of sweet potatoes from which she reglarly harvests leaves, and once in a while will harvest the sweet potatoes, too.

As for regular potato, the leaves are not edible and in fact can be poisonous. But then again, they are the most calorie-dense starch available to temperate climate, small-scale farmers.

Poet

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love it

either a price spike in oil causes an economic contraction which brings the price of oil down again, or an economic contraction comes from other causes and brings down the price of oil, either way you will end up with lower oil prices.

i just love all these articles from self appointed experts quoting themselves and predicting only doom and gloom.

did you know when they invented the steam engine they worried about running out of firewood ?

and later there were huge price spikes in coal and worries about coal running out, that was in about 1850, no sign of coal running out yet.

its all alot of nonsese, you are just acting as a mouth piece for exxon mobile, hype salesman, helping pump their profits before oil is superseeded with something else.

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Probably not the Mad Max scenario...

Damnthematrix wrote:

Hoarding ANYTHING will do you no good at all, eventually.  You WILL run out of food WTSHTF.

The best place to store food is in the ground.....

If you can't get used to that idea, well you will be a casualty.

I don't believe this is true. WTSHTF it will be chaos for a while, but eventually we will settle into a new normal.  We will still trade for food - it just may be considerably more expensive, may be a much larger portion of everyone's budget, and may not be buying it with the currency we currently use. 

While growing your own food is certainly a good way to prep, just having enough to survive past the initial breakdown and reorganizing puts you far ahead of others. It gives you time to analyse the situation as it unfolds without sweating over how your going to eat which is a considerable advantage.

If you believe only those growing their own food are the only ones that will survive, I think you better be very very heavily armed since if it gets to that situation you will be fighting off hordes of starving people. I believe the only thing we can all hope for is to be prepared and be flexible.  After all you may have a lovely garden, nice solar panels, and still have to flee due to many reasons (rioting, looting, lawlessness, political persecution, ...).

Also, you did notice that ewilkerson said they were planting a garden, fruit trees, had seeds, etc?

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Canada and Dutch diease

Samuel,

Thanks for your response.  I was not familiar with that term.  I can see the problem now.  

But is it worse than what we have in the US considering how well Canada weathered the financial crisis.  They had a balanced budget for many years before the crisis, they have been paying down their relatively low national debt, and they have emerged from the crisis with the world's most stable banking system.

phillipsd

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technet wrote:did you know

technet wrote:
did you know when they invented the steam engine they worried about running out of firewood ?

Yes.....  and they would have had there not been huge amounts of undiscovered AND superior quality fuels, namely coal gas and oil......

technet wrote:
and later there were huge price spikes in coal and worries about coal running out, that was in about 1850, no sign of coal running out yet.

Well you'd be wrong........  have you even done the Crash Course yet?  Not all coal is created equal.  Some, like Anthracite has very high energy content, while brown coal has much lower energy content.  ALL the best stuff is already mined out leaving us....  the dregs.  So we have to mine more and more just to tread water.  The USA has already reached "Peak Coal Energy Content".  And the world's coal reserves have been found to be waaaaay overstated, some like the German reserves being OFFICIALLY downgraded 99%!

technet wrote:
it's all alot of nonsense, you are just acting as a mouth piece for exxon mobile, hype salesman, helping pump their profits before oil is superseeded with something else.

Before you go spouting your own nonsense about, I'd suggest you educate yourself by first doing the CRASH COURSE.....

Google "Peak Coal"

And THEN get back to us with what you now think........

Mike

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rhare wrote: Damnthematrix

rhare wrote:

Damnthematrix wrote:

Hoarding ANYTHING will do you no good at all, eventually.  You WILL run out of food WTSHTF.

I don't believe this is true. WTSHTF it will be chaos for a while, but eventually we will settle into a new normal.  We will still trade for food - it just may be considerably more expensive, may be a much larger portion of everyone's budget, and may not be buying it with the currency we currently use.

With all due respect.......  you still don't get it.

90% (that's right, NINETY!) of all the calories in your food comes from fossil fuels.  It would only take some oil crisis, like a revolution in Saudi Arabia, or "the big one" hitting California, and you would have a massive oil shortage causing the shelves in supermarkets to be rapidly emptied, with no resupplies......  At any one time, supermarkets only have three days worth of food on the shelves.  EVERYTHING is delivered by truck....  EVERYTHING.

Good luck......

Mike

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Drama queen.....

Damnthematrix wrote:

With all due respect.......  you still don't get it.

90% (that's right, NINETY!) of all the calories in your food comes from fossil fuels.  It would only take some oil crisis, like a revolution in Saudi Arabia, or "the big one" hitting California, and you would have a massive oil shortage causing the shelves in supermarkets to be rapidly emptied, with no resupplies......  At any one time, supermarkets only have three days worth of food on the shelves.  EVERYTHING is delivered by truck....  EVERYTHING.

Sorry mike, but I believe you are being overly dramatic, and that takes a lot.  So tell me, even if Saudi Arabia was taken out (12% of world oil production) how does that translate into no food?  People will certainly adapt to a new lower normal and as long as people need to eat, food will be traded.

Indeed, I believe we will have a SHTF event.  Markets will fail, currencies will fail, and within a few weeks (perhaps months) a new normal will arise with trade for those with food and oil.  You just won't be buying your next generation ipad over a latte at Starbucks while discussing American Idol.

I believe your "IF YOU DON'T GROW YOUR OWN FOOD YOU WILL DIE!!!!!!!" message is not accurate and not particularly productive.  Many people can not grow their own food, in fact very very few can grow all they need to survive on their own.  So I believe it is much more prudent to have a good stockpile to survive supply chain disruptions (maybe months) and be able to adapt to a new normal which I doubt any of us knows exactly what that will look like.

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My Food

Mike,

I must not have been unclear and incomplete.  I have started planting a garden.  I just started this year with only fruit trees and sweet potatoes.  I am keeping a store of seeds, bought a tiller, seed starter equipment, etc.  My "city" is not all that big so I have relatives I can work with as well on their farms.  I, also, anticipate that I am going to be the only one in my neighborhood prepared, so I am going to work on co-oping gardening.  We have pretty good size lots here.

The way I  look at all this is that mankind is either going to learn to work together and not be so selfish or perish.

Ernest

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technet wrote: either a

technet wrote:

either a price spike in oil causes an economic contraction which brings the price of oil down again, or an economic contraction comes from other causes and brings down the price of oil, either way you will end up with lower oil prices.

i just love all these articles from self appointed experts quoting themselves and predicting only doom and gloom.

did you know when they invented the steam engine they worried about running out of firewood ?

and later there were huge price spikes in coal and worries about coal running out, that was in about 1850, no sign of coal running out yet.

its all alot of nonsese, you are just acting as a mouth piece for exxon mobile, hype salesman, helping pump their profits before oil is superseeded with something else.

When oil hits $180 a barrel will you come back and share more wisdom with us?  

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Peak Oil a Myth

Just like the Man-made Global Warming, this peak oil stuff is concocted to force a change in our lives and society. It's really laughable when you dig only a little.. So many other supposedly scientific "truths" are the same way - modern nutritional "scinece" and modern medicine.  We have a saying at work (not gonna say which science focused agency).. "Science is welfare for smart people."    I had lunch with a really sharp young engineer and he was telling me about his study and report on the viability of wind and solar as combined replacements for  oil, natuarl gas, coal (combined or individually) .. Even when he stacked the assumptions to  near ridiculous odds in favor of "green" energy, it was still in the single digits in terms of percent of energy provided by these sources - not to mention the incredible costs of wind and solar to acheive that level.  If it were a sound solution, we would be doing it.   Don't be sheep! Study the subject yourself.Start at first principles. Don't take my word for it.

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...this peak oil stuff is

...this peak oil stuff is concocted to force a change in our lives and society.

And what would that change be and who wants us to change?

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Johnny, You can't reason

Johnny, You can't reason with people like that.  They can be the ones left off the Ark.  All I know is that having a background in business, Economics, and science the first time I heard Matt Simmons speak about it convinced me.  I probably spend an hour or two an evening searching the net to educate myself further.

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Re: ...this peak oil stuff is

I'm just curious.

I always wonder what the motivations are to post things like that. No real facts. He just alludes to things someone said.

I also wonder if he thinks there is an infinite supply of oil or if he has even thought that far ahead.

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Scout

Quote:
I had lunch with a really sharp young engineer and he was telling me about his study and report on the viability of wind and solar as combined replacements for  oil, natuarl gas, coal (combined or individually) .. Even when he stacked the assumptions to  near ridiculous odds in favor of "green" energy, it was still in the single digits in terms of percent of energy provided by these sources - not to mention the incredible costs of wind and solar to acheive that level.

That's pretty much my understanding of what peak oil theorists believe.  What part of peak oil theory do you disagree with?

Doug

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Johnny Oxygen wrote: I'm

Johnny Oxygen wrote:

I'm just curious.

I always wonder what the motivations are to post things like that. No real facts. He just alludes to things someone said.

I also wonder if he thinks there is an infinite supply of oil or if he has even thought that far ahead.

Johnny O,

I think he answered your question when he made the statement:

"We have a saying at work (not gonna say which science focused agency)."

Sounds like someone who receives a paycheck from the primary consumer of thin air fiat currency manufacturing, INC.

Coop

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Johnny, I agree.  It is

Johnny,

I agree.  It is baffling.  All those people are, though, is 30 sec. sound bite fools.  They apparently do not want to know more.  Change is difficult, and there are a lot of people who want to live in fantasy land.  Think about the last 30 years.  Anyone could have predicted that if you continued to cut taxes and increase spending we would end up right here.  I know this is a controversial thing to say, but America is getting what it deserves.  We have been narcissistic consumers with borrowed money, so the time has come to pay.

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I had lunch with a really

I had lunch with a really sharp young engineer and he was telling me about his study and report on the viability of wind and solar as combined replacements for  oil, natuarl gas, coal (combined or individually) .. Even when he stacked the assumptions to  near ridiculous odds in favor of "green" energy, it was still in the single digits in terms of percent of energy provided by these sources - not to mention the incredible costs of wind and solar to acheive that level.

I completely agree with the above statement.

And I would also add that we couldn't build enough nuclear plants because of the cost not to mention there isn't enough uranium on the plantet to keep hundreds or thousand of nuclear plants running idefinitely.

I think one of the biggest take-aways from peak oil is that there isn't a replacement/s. Our current volume of energy consumption is going to end which means a complete re-think of how we live our lives.

But this notion that there is so much oil on the planet that we don't need to worry is just simple crazy and thoughtless.

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Were you alive in the 70's?

G'Day  Tecnet,

You quite possibly were not alive in the 70's when the oil shocks hit.  I was in Uni.  These shocks were short and sweet, but they left a warning to ALL Americans that life can be quite difficult, very quickly.  I was in Seattle at the time.  It made me buy a small car .  I also moved closer to work.  It also forced American car companies to make smaller cars.  The speed limit went down to 55mph.  It caused inflation, that required 18% interest rates to quell.  This left an ever lasting impression on me.  Luckily, it all went away, but it was obvious that things were gonna get real tough.  Next time it could stay that way.

I started working in the oil patch to 'help America'?  Sounds corny, but it was my intention.  At least I got a job that paid well. I still work on wells.  I bring them 'on-line' all the time.  I can tell you that the wells are being worked-over, coming up the hole all the time shooting new zones.  It's only a matter of time before it becomes a 'dry' hole. 

I went to California to see about work, but I was put off by all the wells that were being abandoned.  I wanted nothing to do with abandoning wells as a steady diet.  So I didn't work in Californina. I worked in Oz offshore.  I did help abandon the biggest well that ever produced oil in Australia.  It was off shore in the Bass Straight.  The lads on the platform were a bit teary eyed when I began the operations, because they remembered  the whole platform shaking when it came on line.  It was #1 well in Bass Straight...and I plugged it.  It was dead!  End of an era out there for them.  It meant the beginning-of-the-end for them on the platform.

Right now, I live in an area that produces 3 million barrels per day within 100km from where I'm wriing this, so I ain't worried...for now.  I changed my vocation choice,  so I'm prepared.  Are U? 

Regards,

Woomera

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Damnthematrix

Damnthematrix wrote:

"Finding the energy to boil the water will be even tougher. Chevron could use oil instead of natural gas—literally burning oil to produce oil—but that would burn profits, too. So the company likely will be forced to import natural gas from overseas, an expensive process that involves chilling it to turn it into a liquid, then shipping it thousands of miles."

If EVER you needed an example of lower ERoEI.......  this is IT!  This example is a great one of clutching at straws.

The Party's Over guys...

Mike

Well said. However, do you think there is any chance for ANY technology to be feasible at a given future price of a barrell of oil?

For example, why do we think "in the box" by using old methods of steam extraction? Why not look into the possiblity of sound waves, aka microwaves.  If we can generate it on our kitchen cabinent to liquefy "molasses", why not use it downhole? Electronic technology is already decades long into the finding of the potential oil reservoirs, why not equip the same technology to "liquify" the heavy crude?

If sulphur is a by-product then engineering could be put in place to handle the potential hazard.  Perhaps when crude oil hits $300 a barrel, there will be a lot more feasible technologies to utilize to extract the product.

Just saying.   

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The End of Peak Cheap Oil

Johnny Oxygen wrote:

But this notion that there is so much oil on the planet that we don't need to worry is just simple crazy and thoughtless.

Your statement is true, but I would clarify it a little.  We have ended the era of cheap oil. There are still many deep canyons yet to be explored in the Gulf of Mexico and the South Atlantic (specifically Brazil).  I hope the new domestic laws in place will make if safer for the environment and the industry to explore.  Unfortunately, the cost of negligence has also exponentially increased the cost of finding "non-cheap" oil.  In 6000' of water the spread cost to finding the fossil fuel is now about $1 million dollars per day with average drill times close to 90 days.  A 5 well platform would put the spread cost to nearly half a billion dollars.  Therefore, the unconventional oil plays (at least in the Deepwater GoM) HAVE to be economically prolific or it's a non-starter.

A point of interest, "Why would the Chinese invest nearly 10 billion dollars in Petrobras (Brazil's national oil company) if the future potential at a predetermined contract price were not so feasible to their country?  I think they get the idea of Peak Cheap Oil. Oh, and by the way, they get to buy all that production with cheap American dollars!

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Schlumberger has microwave technology

G'Day Damnthematrix,

Big Blue (Schlumberger) bought this technology some years ago from Raytheon.  I was working for the mob when this came out.  I know I was excited, but maybe for naught.  Big Blue won't put it out until it works.  Maybe never?

http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_8329977

http://www.nextenergynews.com/news1/next-energy-news1.24c.html

Regards,

Woomera

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Well.?? Follow Up on Oil and a digression of sorts

Some things that are facts from my perspective: 

1) No one has been able to really explain accurately how much oil resources are available in the earth's crust. 

2) We know they are not "fossil fuels" and did not come from decayed animal/plant life - which actually made no sense to me when I first heard it ages ago, but I swallowed the pill anyway (among several others)   

3) The best  and most logical position I can find is that oil/gas is not being depleted but that the amounts are likely  vast and untapped. Russians ironically have  away of cutting through crap like climate change and peak oil..They have likely put the most unrestrained effort into understanding it.

4) The corporate /political motivations to manipulate researchers, educators, and the general public is tremendous  while corruption, lies and manipulations are revealed regularly to an apathetic and reality-detached public -- "just feed me more green stuff and show me some movies".

5) The themes/trends between supposedly disparate issues seem to be similar, whether it's food, medicine, oil, "climate change" (AKA "Weather'), population control -- it takes years for most of us to wake up - it took me a while and I am still waking up I guess..

Now - As for the personal attack/comment about me and my work perspective,  I started out in the system (unknowingly I suppose) and am still "in the system".. I think I work hard and study hard and am a good person. Not a leech - though I know many.  [ actually leeches are pretty important - too bad they get a bad rap]  A part of any prep plan should be to make sure you have valuable skills and talents that are needed once ( or if) the system leaves you or you leave it.    I would like to hear from one of who think you are not playing in the system anymore (even if not a gummint employee).  Understanding your dependencies and having alternatives is important part of the plan. Those whose success/ knowledge soley rely on the financial services sector will be the hardest hit - moreso than 'gummint' employees.    

All of that said I believe in being thrifty ( note the screen name), and believe wasting resources of any type is not good.  Neither is concocting grand schemes to brainwash/force people to embrace one-world government, give up what little liberties they have  and step one foot closer to the new definition of slavery..  Idealistic, I know.. but hey .. you only live once.

Now as far as me writing down all of the supporting  data for you here, I would say that is too much to expect.  Some of you stopped reading many sentences ago.   That's why I made my little comment before breakfast and came back for more.  Go study the subject yourself.  Nobody here presents enough data to convince anyone else - not even the "owner'.. There's enough to make you think about it and look into things for yourself. 

I am new to this site, but not at all new to the concept espoused here. Been at the 'being prepared' game a long time in varying ways off and on.  I am still trying to figure out Martenson's true angle because the feel and person type I sense here is different than most preparedness / self reliance sites.  Pardon me for expressing a generalization or opinion that this seems like the 'preppy, urban, cafe latte  version of prepper sites..  To oversimplify, but maybe accurately - The country type/woods loving (mostly conservative or liberatrian) folks have been after these issues for decades (literally) and this site seems to be filled with many left leaning folks who are finally waking up and are rightly worried - but about the wrong causes of  things - IMO anyway.

Even if we disagree on the source of the issue, we can hopefully agree that there WILL VERY LIKELY BE issues and we all need to get our houses in order. 

Scout

PS.. I got a chuckle from the comment form one guy saying  he bought a pistol and a shotgun -as something he could never imagine himself doing before!!.. All I can say to those of you who are  like that guy, please be careful - Buying a piano does not make one a musician..While anyone can learn to use a firearm pretty easily, your mindset / attitude and self control are the critical components.. You had better learn to be cool, think fast, fight, and yes - get in shape -  if you want that pistol to be worth a dang.  Learn to hunt.  Otherwise you are just an easy source of a good gun for the guy who did not buy one - and trust me, there are plenty of "nice people" who are planning on using your preps instead of doing their own..      

jturbo68's picture
jturbo68
Status: Silver Member (Online)
Joined: Aug 4 2009
Posts: 193
Scout, Another Abiotic Oil Man

Scout,

Welcome aboard.

If you are not concerned about Peak Oil or Climate Change, why bother being a prepper? 

What is your outlook; Why do you do it?

Prepping is prepping, so in that sense it is all good.  However I think reaching the right conclusions about what is happening and why is important as well.  We work on all aspects of that.

This isnt really a survivalist site, for the most part.  Maybe that is the difference of tone that you notice.

Johnny Oxygen's picture
Johnny Oxygen
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 9 2009
Posts: 1441
Not a good start

Scout

You know very little about this site and the individuals that it is made up of.

We have a thread called "The Definitive Firearms Thread"

This thread goes into a great deal of depth about self protection and use of firearms. There are some very knowledgable people on this site in regards this topic.

I think you should check the arrogance at the door before you assume you have us all figured out.

If you want to believe that there is plenty of oil and its only being hidden from us fine. This site is about those very types of discussions but you'll find that you will be expected to show proof of your beliefs here if you want to be taken seriously.

Why not bring at least as much information to the argument that Chris has before disregarding his side of the argument?

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