Blog en Observations From The Heart Of Silicon Valley ]]><p>Yesterday I made the 2-hour drive back to Silicon Valley, where I lived for 15 years before moving out to the country.</p> <p>I rarely go back, as I miss very little about the hyper-elite scene there. When I do, though, I feel I have a useful &#39;insider-now-outsider&#39; perspective that allows me to see things there more accurately than those who live in that fishbowl 24/7.</p> <p>What hit me most strongly upon arriving back in the Menlo Park/Palo Alto area, is how little of the craziness has changed since I left 4 years ago. I don&#39;t mean &#39;unchanged&#39; though; rather that the same craziness is there, just more extreme than ever.</p> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Blog Apple bubble central bank China Elizabeth Holmes Federal Reserve Google home prices housing LinkedIn Menlo Park Netflix Palo Alto rent prices Silicon Valley tech Theranos twitter venture capital Fri, 20 May 2016 00:11:48 +0000 Adam Taggart 98395 at Which Countries Will Be Tomorrow's Winners & Losers? ]]><p>The dictum &ldquo;demographics is destiny&rdquo; proposes that all the complexities of finance, society and politics are ultimately guided by demographics: the relative size of each generation, birth rates, death rates, etc.</p> <p>Where does this lead? If geography and demographics have already defined which nations will be attractive to capital and most likely to accumulate productive capital in their domestic economy, and those nations that will struggle due to high costs and low rates of capital investment, in effect Nature (geography) and Culture (demographics) have already picked tomorrow&rsquo;s winners and losers.</p> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Blog capital Charles Hugh Smith demographics geography Peter Zeihan Sat, 14 May 2016 00:23:44 +0000 charleshughsmith 98110 at The Inevitability Of Unintended Consequences ]]><p>Anyone involved with managing projects, people or systems knows that the only thing that can be planned with absolute certainty is that things will never go 100% according to plan.</p> <p>This is true even in exceedingly simple situations, which we&#39;ve written about at length here at Peak Prosperity (the uncontrollable nature of the straightforward&nbsp;<a href="" target="_blank">Beer Game detailed in this post on the Bullwhip Effect</a>&nbsp;outlines this well). And it&#39;s one of the truisms that gives us the most confidence that the world&#39;s central planners will eventually lose control of the global systems they are trying to manage via increasingly heavy-handed intervention.</p> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Blog unintended consequences Tue, 10 May 2016 06:04:51 +0000 Adam Taggart 98224 at Chaos & Volatility On The Rise ]]><p>No, that&rsquo;s not a &lsquo;click bait&rsquo; sensationalist article title. Things are getting &lsquo;weird&rsquo; out there if you&rsquo;re trying to be polite, and downright chaotic if you are being blunt.&nbsp; Everywhere we look, we see signs that the systems that support us are breaking down.&nbsp;</p> <p>All of these are signs that the status quo has failed and continues to fail us. But the form of power expressed by our so-called &lsquo;leaders&rsquo; today seems nearly incapable of healthy introspection coupled to correct action; preferring instead to do more of the same things that got us into this mess in the first place.</p> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Blog chaos economy Fort McMurray hedge funds Markets stocks volatility Sat, 07 May 2016 00:01:48 +0000 cmartenson 98186 at Why We're So Unhealthy ]]><p>I was fortunate to attend a&nbsp;permaculture&nbsp;conference, &#39;<strong>Better Soil, Better Food...A Better World&#39;</strong>&nbsp;at&nbsp;<a href="" target="_blank">Tara Firma Farms</a>&nbsp;in&nbsp;Petaluma, California this past weekend that Adam Taggart (co-founder of Peak Prosperity) was responsible for producing. Joel&nbsp;Salatin&nbsp;(author of nine books, including&nbsp;<a href="" target="_blank">Everything I Want To Do Is Illegal: War Stories from the Local Food Front</a>&nbsp;and head farmer at&nbsp;Polyface&nbsp;Farms, Virginia), Paul Kaiser (Singing Frogs Farm, Sonoma, California), Toby&nbsp;Hemenway&nbsp;(author of&nbsp;<a href="" target="_blank">Gaia&#39;s Garden: A Guide to Home-Scale&nbsp;Permaculture,&nbsp;2nd&nbsp;Edition</a>), and Robb Wolf (author of&nbsp;<a href="" target="_blank">The&nbsp;Paleo&nbsp;Solution: The Original Human Diet</a>) were on hand to explain the connections between the way our food is grown, processed and distributed and our ill-health.</p> <p>Though these connections are common sense&mdash;we all know about garbage in, garbage out&mdash;the linkage between our extractive,&nbsp;monoculture&nbsp;agriculture and all the other subsystems of food and health remains opaque to most Americans.</p> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Blog American Medical Association arthritis BMI Cancer Charles Hugh Smith diabetes Diet health health care heart disease high blood pressure nutrition Obesity Fri, 29 Apr 2016 23:31:31 +0000 charleshughsmith 98031 at Automating Ourselves To Unemployment ]]><p>In this current era of central planning,&nbsp;malincentives&nbsp;abound. We raced to&nbsp;frack&nbsp;as fast we could for the quick money, while leaving behind a wake of environmental destruction and creating a supply glut that has killed the economics of shale oil. Our stock exchanges sell unfairly-fast price feeds for great sums to elite Wall Street high-frequency-trading firms, and as a result have destroyed investor trust in our financial markets. &nbsp;The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates historically low to encourage banks to lend money out, yet instead the banks simply lever up to buy&nbsp;Treasurys&nbsp;thereby pocketing vast amounts of&nbsp;riskless&nbsp;free profit. The list goes on and on.</p> <p>One particular&nbsp;malincentive&nbsp;has been catching my attention recently, one that feels especially pernicious because it does not seem easily reversible, if at all. For US employers both large and small, it&#39;s becoming increasingly less appealing to employ human labor.&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Blog AI Automation employment jobs labor layoff malincentive malinvestment mechanization robot robotics technology unemployment Thu, 28 Apr 2016 01:39:49 +0000 Adam Taggart 97851 at We’re Not Going To Make It… ]]><p>Right now I&#39;m on a Metro North train heading the NYC. I&rsquo;ve been invited to sit on an advisory council at the UN on building a sustainable energy future.</p> <p>I&rsquo;ll let you know how the meeting goes, after I take a few&nbsp;selfies&nbsp;to immortalize the experience in case I&#39;m not invited back.&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Blog energy fossil fuels UN United Nations Wed, 30 Mar 2016 04:18:15 +0000 cmartenson 97643 at Less Than 1 Month To Go! ]]><p>If you&#39;ve been thinking about attending this year&#39;s annual Peak Prosperity seminar in Rowe, MA, time is running out to make your decision.</p> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Blog Rowe seminar Wed, 16 Mar 2016 15:27:08 +0000 Adam Taggart 97414 at The Year Of The Red Monkey: Volatility Reigns Supreme ]]><p>In the lunar calendar that started February 8, this is the Year of the Red Monkey. I found this description of the Red Monkey quite apt:</p> <blockquote><p><em>&quot;According to Chinese Five Elements Horoscopes, Monkey contains Metal and Water. Metal is connected to gold. Water is connected to wisdom and danger. Therefore, we will deal with more financial events in the year of the Monkey. Monkey is a smart, naughty, wily and vigilant animal. If you want to have good return for your money investment, then you need to outsmart the Monkey. Metal is also connected to the Wind. That implies the status of events will be changing very quickly. Think twice before you leap when making changes for your finance, career, business relationship and people relationship.&quot;</em></p> <p><em>(<a href="" target="_blank">Source</a>)</em></p> </blockquote> <p>In other words, the financial world will be volatile. And few will have the agility and wile to outsmart the market-monkey.</p> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Blog bonds bubble central banks crisis currency financial markets fire monkey interest rates NIRP recession red monkey stimulus stocks volatility ZIRP Fri, 11 Mar 2016 19:16:49 +0000 charleshughsmith 97173 at Email Issues With Microsoft ]]><p>It&#39;s recently come to our attention that email services associated with Microsoft (Hotmail, Outlook, MSN, Live) have started blocking the Peak Prosperity server that sends out our emails.</p> <p>Once we realized what was going on, we reached out to Microsoft to alert them and work to rectify things. We&#39;re relieved to say that as of today, our email communications to our Microsoft customers should be restored.</p> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Blog email Hotmail Live Microsoft MSN Outlook Tue, 08 Mar 2016 03:13:36 +0000 Adam Taggart 97247 at