Blog

Peak Prosperity

Why The Next 20 Years Will Be Completely Unlike The Last 20

Presenting the 'Accelerated' Crash Course
Friday, June 20, 2014, 10:50 AM

Let's pull back for a moment and look at the Really Big Picture:

We're facing a future in which the economic growth the world has enjoyed over the past century can no longer continue.

Over-indebtedness, mal-investment, cronyism, manipulation, and misguided policymaking have all certainly contributed to our current predicament. But the principal causes are much bigger. And much harder to address.

Simply put, we're entering an era when it's becoming increasingly difficult to obtain the resources we need -- at the cost we need -- to power the economic activity we need.

The trends of resource depletion, escalating mining & drilling costs, species die-offs, emptying aquifers, declining energy yields and the like are increasingly pitting the world's 7 billion people (soon to be 9 billion before 2050) against each other in competition for the remaining biomass and minerals that make industry possible.

As a result, massive changes to our way of life are in store. No matter where each of us lives.

This brand-new video shines a bright light on these trends and the risks we face as a result. But it also offers hope. If we take action now, while there's still time, there's much we can do not only to reduce our personal vulnerability to these threats, but also to step into this new future with newfound optimism:

For the best viewing experience, watch the below video in hi-definition (HD) and in expanded screen mode

click here to read the transcript

The above video is a condensation of the 4.5-hour long full Crash Course video series. The data and analysis underlying the material represent over a decade of intensive research and study. Over that decade, its forecasts have proved increasingly validated by events like the collapse of the housing bubble in 2007, the 2008 credit crisis and the anemic 'recovery' since, oil prices persistently over $100 per barrel, the five-fold rise in gold prices, and many other symptoms of an unsustainable world economy reaching its failure point. Sadly, the risks warned of in this video are very real, and they are arriving now.

Once you've finished watching the video, please share it with those whom you think would most benefit from it. The more people we wake up to its message, the more hands we'll have supporting us today in planning for tomorrow.

With thanks,

Chris Martenson PhD & Adam Taggart

Related content

31 Comments

cmartenson's picture
cmartenson
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 7 2007
Posts: 3544
Yahoo!!!!

All:

This has been a long time in the making and Adam and Jason have been working their tails off to bring this to fruition.  So a hearty thanks to both Adam and Jason!!

We sincerely hope this new Accelerated Crash Course and all the related videos can help all of us reach a new and wider audience.

Also very good news is that the way in which we produced this allows us to make changes far more readily in the future and we expect to add/subtract, nip and tuck to continue our process of refinement over time.

Congratulations team, well done!

Rector's picture
Rector
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 7 2010
Posts: 353
A Service to Humanity

Not to overstate the case, but this summation is a true service to humanity.  It's EXACTLY what I have been waiting for to introduce the 3E's to my ADHD friends, co-workers, and family.  Thank you for the hard work and the solid production.  The quality is excellent - though not as good as the book! wink

To any new visitors to PP.com - Welcome!

In 2010 I caught my first episode of The Crash Course (Inflation) on YouTube.  After a short panic attack - it immediately opened my eyes and my mind and caused a move towards a more resilient future for my family and friends.  Now, almost 4 years later, we are in a solid position - most of us have moved to the country, we have improved our skills and abilities, we are watchful and aware - but not afraid.  Some did more, and some did less but we are all far better prepared for a new future.  I planted a vinyard in the months following - today I am eating grapes.

If you are seeing this information for the first time and feel a call to action - don't let it pass!  I am reminded of the old saw about planting a tree:  the best time to plant one is 20 years ago, and the second best time to plant one is today!  

You Are Not Alone!

Rector

dryam2000's picture
dryam2000
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 6 2009
Posts: 99
Much Appreciated

I would like to thank Chris, Adam, and all others involving in putting together the new Crash Course.  My girlfriend has watched some of the original Crash Course videos and slowly I think she's starting to put things together for herself.  We watched the Accelerated Crash Course together this afternoon.  After about 2 years of me showing her videos and such from Peak Prosperity she's finally at the point of taking action.  At times I had wondered if it was ever going to sink in.  

I still think the central banks can take these 'markets' much higher before the disconnect with the real world, but trying to time things just right is a recipe for disaster.  My belief is that diversification is key, including owning some select conservative stocks, cash in multiple currencies, PM's, and as much local investment as feasible.  The financial system is going to be manipulated to the very end, and the governments around the world can do all sorts of things that are completely unimaginable by 99.9% of us.  This is why I think it's prudent to still have a small portion of one's wealth within the system.  It's all about managing risks & being diversified.   I have full confidence there will be a major dislocation/breakdown in the financial markets, but I think it's still up in the air whether we will continue on a high/hyperinlflationary path, or a deflationary depression.  There are so many variables in play right now.  

By the way, is there any word onhow to go about investing in Farmland LP that Adam has been discussing?   

Thanks

Arthur Robey's picture
Arthur Robey
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 4 2010
Posts: 2536
Thank you.

A much appreciated effort, well worth it, thank you.

This is going up on the intranet at work. It is easier to apologise than to ask permission. I'll takes my lumps later.

mobius's picture
mobius
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: May 18 2009
Posts: 152
Tremendous!

Listening/watching it now and it sounds & looks fantastic.  Lucid, clear, entertaining.

Fantastic.  Kudos.

Poet's picture
Poet
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jan 21 2009
Posts: 1844
Excellent!

Very well done, Chris and Adam, with something crucial that wasn't emphasized as much back in the first Crash Course: hope and optimism for the future. This one is a worthy wake-up call, and a call to action to strive positively for a world worth inheriting.

Poet

Abandon Ship's picture
Abandon Ship
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 22 2009
Posts: 26
Beautifully consumable!

I shall be forwarding this to as many High school teachers as I know. It should be required learning for our children, it is there that I think it will have the greatest impact. Young minds that are already weary of the sclerotic economy created and supported by their parents. Young minds free from the doctrine of eternal exponential growth. Young minds that have no choice but look to the future. Young minds that are already asking the questions that the crash course answers.

Well done and thanks to Chris and the team.

Petey1's picture
Petey1
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 13 2012
Posts: 38
Nice Job!

I admire your ability to keep up with so much information and present it in a way most people can understand.

Oliveoilguy's picture
Oliveoilguy
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 29 2012
Posts: 403
Path to PP Website

Brilliantly conceived and communicated.

Here is a follow up suggestion to take people to the PP website on a very defined path.

Link the final invitation from the Crash Course Video to a visitor (orientation) spot on the PP site that contains specifics. For example:

  1. Local Evolvement: Give a concrete story or example of something like a community garden, or a benefit for a distressed family. Then link that to the specific areas on PP where we discuss similar issues.
  2. Economics: Give a short example of how Gold and Silver served a family during a specific currency crisis, as compared to a family with paper assets. Then link that to areas such as the Gold/Silver group.
  3. Energy Efficiency:  Show the cost of a 2kw solar system installed vs the cost of a family 1 week vacation to a resort. Link to areas on alternative energy.
  4. Food:  Quantify the production from 10 potato plants, 4 tomatoes, 2 squash, basil, beans, lettuce with the area needed to grow and the cost to purchase the organic equivalent at Whole Foods. Link
  5. Emergency Readiness: Use a hurricane as an example and detail the response of a prepared family vs. the family caught off guard. Link to specific areas on the site.
  6. Health: Find something specific like the direct costs for a sedentary, obese person ( example: FIFA has reserved more than 4 600 super-sized seats at the 12 Soccer World Cup stadiums for obese people.)vs. the benefits of an active  lifestyle with good dietary habits. Link

When I try to put myself into the mindset of someone new to the concept of Peak Prosperity, I think I would like some specific examples and anecdotes to channel me from the macro down to the concrete micro level. Someone new to Peak Prosperity Concepts might feel overwhelmed when they arrive at the PP site without some guidance. 

Oliveoilguy's picture
Oliveoilguy
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 29 2012
Posts: 403
Visitors and New Members

A follow up comment.

On the top bar of the site where it says "Crash Course, Learn, Take Action, Discuss and Prepare" why not add a tab called "Visitor Orientation".  As a newbie, I would find that welcoming. 

KugsCheese's picture
KugsCheese
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Jan 2 2010
Posts: 722
Arthur Robey wrote: A much

Arthur Robey wrote:

A much appreciated effort, well worth it, thank you.

This is going up on the intranet at work. It is easier to apologise than to ask permission. I'll takes my lumps later.

Made my day!

nickbert's picture
nickbert
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jan 14 2009
Posts: 1125
responding to shale oil in the CC

Chris, Adam-

I very much like that you incorporated a quick analysis of the 'shale miracle' to the accelerated video. Whenever bringing these issues up or having people see the old CC, 'the shale oil/gas boom makes this irrelevant' is the most common response I hear. So while viewers may still initially refuse to accept the CC's conclusions, at least it gives them one less argument for reinforcing or maintaining their belief in the status quo staying the same. (And saves me some time having to constantly explain the long-term reality of shale oil cheeky)

- Nick

imaginer's picture
imaginer
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 15 2010
Posts: 3
Geoeconomics

Hello Chris,

Thank you so much for this and your entire effort thus far.

I live near you relatively speaking (RI) and have considered visiting you and yours with my wife some day.

I too have been changing my lifestyle to prepare for these challenges.

The concept of wealth hit home as well as the exponential growth problem and believe we must lead now.

In that vein, I would like to contribute an old idea, Georgism, or perhaps better named "Geo-economics."

This, along with a better monetary system and new wise leadership could really make a difference.

http://geoeconomics.wordpress.com/

These are at least non exponential possibilities for money we should consider.

http://www.monetary.org

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silvio_Gesell

I also like the articles CHS listed on Zero-hedge...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-21/next-20-years-will-not-be-last-...

Especially this one referenced...http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/jun/19/open-source-revolution-conquer-one-percent-cia-spy

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1583944435/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=17...

Perhaps we need to Open-Source your "Call to Action"

r101958's picture
r101958
Status: Martenson Brigade Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 24 2008
Posts: 235
Another improvement

This is another improvement in a string of improvements since the Crash Course was first on Youtube back in 2008. Great job!

KennethPollinger's picture
KennethPollinger
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 22 2010
Posts: 236
Spreading the Word

In gratitude for your incredible and thorough work, I hereby promise to do everything I can to promulgate both the long and short versions.  My weekly mailing list approaches 4,000 and my three retreat Centers will attempt to have many presentations.  Can't wait to see the responses and reactions!

With the globe in such dire straights right now, all your Information Scouting endeavors will surely bear much beneficial fruit. Thanks to you all, I now feel secure in my preparations with just some small fine tuning needed.

Adam, you have inspired me to concentrate on a permaculture/agroforestry vision in Costa Rica, thus giving me interesting projects in my old age, or as they say in Portand, OR, in my "Honored Elder" years.   Preparing these places for my new reincarnation venture just adds more joy to my life this time around.  Many, many thanks, Ken 

P.S. As an ex-college professor (Sociology), I'm trying to figure out a way to create a college course, for credit or no-credit (continuing education) at 4-5 local Community Colleges in my area. Title of the course: Sustainable Living? The Three Es: Economy, Energy, and Environment?  Introduction to a Sustainable Planet?  etc..  Any other ideas, guys/gals?

And why not High Schools too? Or at local Community Centers? Possibly with on-line college programs? It's infinite, of course, --well, maybe ALMOST infinite.

thc0655's picture
thc0655
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 27 2010
Posts: 660
It's great, but...

The accelerated CC is great, but substituting Yankee Stadium for Fenway Park is a betrayal I'll never get over! And you live in Mass. Deplorable.

Adam Taggart's picture
Adam Taggart
Status: Peak Prosperity Co-founder (Offline)
Joined: May 26 2009
Posts: 1909
Stadium change

Tom -

Both Chris and I grew up in New England.

If you had to destroy a stadium by flooding it, which one would you choose? smiley

Rodney7777's picture
Rodney7777
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 16 2012
Posts: 11
Crash Course

A thank you to all who are responsible for today's crash course video.

I posted it on my Facebook page with the following comment.  ----->

Here is an updated version of Chris Martenson's crash course on economy, energy, and environment (the 3 E's).
I think of what he says as the flywheel effect.  The three E's are like a flywheel that is starting to slow down with no
way to speed it up again.   Right now we all are being propelled along by a flywheel that is decelerating so slowly
that no one notices.  To help myself understand what is happening all around us, I subscribed to Chis's free newsletter
that I signed up for at peakprosperity.com.   It arrives every Sunday morning and I read it all rather than the Sunday paper.

DisappearingCulture's picture
DisappearingCulture
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 21 2014
Posts: 22
Accelerated Crash Course

I've read articles written by and interviews with Chris, and I 'm glad to have had the privilege of accessing this audio/video. Most of of the ideas & concepts are not new to me; I've been reading and listening to a lot of other good people; visionaries in particular. However some ideas or insights are new to me; at least in the way they are put together.

I appreciate this "PG" rated version of how the next 20 years may unfold. I'm glad there is no ranting and raving, and no singling out one political party as the one to blame.

My parents were born in 1925 [father] and 1929 [mother who is still alive]. My father was poor. My mother was lower middle to middle class. Both of their fathers maintained a job during the depression so they have a roof over their head, but my father's family barely had enough to eat. I had the privilege of hearing very detailed accounts of how life was during the depression and during WW2 [the civilian side from my mother, the south pacific military version from my father].

During the depression and WW2 civilians came to my mother's back door and knocked asking if they could spare a meal. My grandparents always had a pot of soup or stew on the stove and welcomed people in to a bathroom for cleaning and all they could eat. Humanitarian relief to the community one person at a time. Back then there was no government welfare like about 50% of all American families are getting some or a lot of [and in the next 20 years it won't keep up with inflation]. It was also a far more gentle and moral society; they asked for a meal; they didn't break in or commit violence to get what they needed or wanted.

When things get difficult in the future unfortunately at times and in some places it will be very dangerous and violent. I'm glad the video didn't get into the societal upheavals we will experience; that would turn off a wider newer audience you are trying to reach. People can only handle a finite amount of new information before shutting down or turning off.

Tall's picture
Tall
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 18 2010
Posts: 290
Sustainability

KennethPollinger wrote:

...

P.S. As an ex-college professor (Sociology), I'm trying to figure out a way to create a college course, for credit or no-credit (continuing education) at 4-5 local Community Colleges in my area. Title of the course: Sustainable Living? The Three Es: Economy, Energy, and Environment?  Introduction to a Sustainable Planet?  etc..  Any other ideas, guys/gals?

And why not High Schools too? Or at local Community Centers? Possibly with on-line college programs? It's infinite, of course, --well, maybe ALMOST infinite.

Before you deliver your course, please consider what sustainability really means to you and strictly define it for your students. Unfortunately, it is one of those words that are used too often and are poorly defined. Each user seems to have a different working definition of ‘sustainabilty’.

For example, does sustainability just mean a level of reduced consumption? Or does it mean the potential for availability of a resource for future generations? Even in the short term (<150 years) our so called sustainable practices fall way short. See an ancient Iroquois definition of sustainability: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seven_generation_sustainability

Here is an introduction to the realities of sustainable living in the Edo period in Japan: http://www.resilience.org/stories/2005-04-05/japans-sustainable-society-...

I postulate these methods are a world away from what most Americans can even imagine or are willing to practice. So can recycling, using LED lights in the home, driving a Leaf and having a few PV panels on the roof be called ‘sustainability’ given the short window during which we will have access to such luxuries? Of what long term benefit is this high tech ‘green’ consumption?

marvmiller's picture
marvmiller
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 23 2012
Posts: 1
English Subtitles?

Hi Chris,

Can your team subtitle this video, please? I would LOVE to watch this and share with the Deaf community as well.

Thanks,

Marvin Miller

Adam Taggart's picture
Adam Taggart
Status: Peak Prosperity Co-founder (Offline)
Joined: May 26 2009
Posts: 1909
Subtitles

We will, Marv.

Just need a little more time. But we'll announce here when ready.

In the interim, feel free to share the transcript.

Bill Kerney's picture
Bill Kerney
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 19 2014
Posts: 2
methane hydrate

In the wake of Fukushima ... what if Japan decides to tap their massive supplies of methane off shore in the form of methane hydrate?

What if Alaskan and Kentucky coal is turned into diesel, gasoline and electricity?

What if we use the Navy's rail gun ability to launch solar panels into space?

What if social media or even talk show hosts have the means to set energy policy at the state level so we unblock the need for consensus at the federal level?

LesPhelps's picture
LesPhelps
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 30 2009
Posts: 283
Tall wrote:I postulate these

Tall wrote:

I postulate these methods are a world away from what most Americans can even imagine or are willing to practice. So can recycling, using LED lights in the home, driving a Leaf and having a few PV panels on the roof be called ‘sustainability’ given the short window during which we will have access to such luxuries? Of what long term benefit is this high tech ‘green’ consumption?

Sustainability is not that complicated of an issue and you seem to focus entirely on consumption.  No form of perpetual growth is sustainable in a constrained environment.  

Consumption is not necessarily evil or non-sustainable and it is not the sole, or even primary, cause of the predicament we face today.

We have been cautioned repeatedly and openly, in widely distributed books and documents, for a very long time, that we were headed for an overpopulation problem.  A very solid case was presented that, if we didn't take steps to control both our population growth and consumption growth, that our choices would continue to become more limited until we reached the point when we non longer had any palatable choices.  

Guess what?  As a world, we listened and rejected these ideas and plowed ahead until we wound up where we are today.

US consumption greed not withstanding, the standard of living we will be reduced to because of our past and present short sightedness is not one I would choose to adopt.  I believe that any return to sustainability at this point will require voluntary or involuntary population reduction as part of the solution.

That does not mean that 'green' technology, as you put it is bad or not a step in the right direction.  It simply means that it is no longer enough because of the level of population overshoot and resource depletion that we have allowed to occur.

I still support 'green' technology.  Green technology provides a more prudent option to other technology available on the market.  I own a hybrid car and Italian scooter, which I use sparingly, and several bicycles.  I know it's not enough, but I'll be darned if I'm going to go without a car while the rest of my neighbors are still up-sizing their family trucks and SUVs.

Also, loving to feel guilty, we frequently blame our consumption for the entire problem ignoring the resources that are being consumed and or destroyed in military adventures world wide.  Last I heard, the US military consumes more oil than the country of Sweden.  It would be interesting to find out where annual US military and security (Homeland Security, FBI, CIA, NSA, TSA...) expenditures rank in relation to the GDPs of various countries around the world.

This is not a problem we can put a dent in, as long as 98% of the planet is trying so hard to pretend everything is fine, nor is it a problem that the US government will take up as long as we keep sending Democrats and Republicans to Washington.

Ideally, sustainability should be taught, in school, in context.  Possibly the best way available today to get the message across is a vehicle like the Crash Course.  Chris, Adam and the Peak Prosperity staff have done a remarkable job of distilling and presenting the ideas that need to be common knowledge to everyone if we hope to move forward.  I think it stand in a class by itself.

SingleSpeak's picture
SingleSpeak
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Nov 30 2008
Posts: 431
Ok I'll bite

Bill Kerney wrote:

In the wake of Fukushima ... what if Japan decides to tap their massive supplies of methane off shore in the form of methane hydrate?

What if Alaskan and Kentucky coal is turned into diesel, gasoline and electricity?

What if we use the Navy's rail gun ability to launch solar panels into space?

What if social media or even talk show hosts have the means to set energy policy at the state level so we unblock the need for consensus at the federal level?

Answer:We'd still be facing the predicament of finite resources and infinite growth.

SS

feumap's picture
feumap
Status: Martenson Brigade Member (Offline)
Joined: May 10 2010
Posts: 2
Accelerated Crash Course

I contacted the University of Basle (Prof. Ueli Mäder) for a German version of the ACC. I'll keep you posted. For the original  translation team it is just a bit too much for their available resources ... I liked this new "product" from the peakprosperity group. 

It is just scary! The road map we use with an almost religious belief in progress and economic growth is totally useless. Here in Switzerland there is a wide-spread belief that we are on the our track to a bright future...My guess is that THE collapse will come at the point when one of the dominos starts alling...!

Paul Feuermann

KennethPollinger's picture
KennethPollinger
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 22 2010
Posts: 236
Les Phelps, an answer for you

US gov't is the biggest corp/buyer/consumer of anything it gets!

Notiller64's picture
Notiller64
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Jan 31 2014
Posts: 6
Accelerated' Crash Course

Thanks for the updated material.

One question. 

On the scale on the x-axis of the graph at 40:55 "Mining Yield -Waste/Product.  The scale seems to be incorrect.  With the raw data would this really show exponential growth?

Adam Taggart's picture
Adam Taggart
Status: Peak Prosperity Co-founder (Offline)
Joined: May 26 2009
Posts: 1909
Closed caption subtitles now live

Marv (and other interested folks) -

Subtitles have now been added to the ACC video.

In the player embedded in the above post, click on the "CC" icon near the bottom right. That will activate closed captioning.

Deap's picture
Deap
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 28 2014
Posts: 1
this is a fantastic resource

Thank you for creating a very valuable resource, I would love to interview you both on how you came to dedicating yourselves to such incredible work.  Would this be possible, I like to share the stories of innovative, disruptive leaders for good.

I l

Mike Miller's picture
Mike Miller
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 30 2014
Posts: 1
no mention of specific potential internal problems

I am curious as to what your take is on FEMA camps, NSA spying, military drills across the country and massive ammunition and weapon purchases by DHS and other government agencies.  Do you believe these are all just a part of conspiracy theories or do you think there could be an actual threat that may come from within?  Is martial law and distinct possibility you see in the near future?

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Login or Register to post comments