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Peak Prosperity

Debt - Crash Course Chapter 13

There's just too damn much of it
Friday, September 12, 2014, 9:04 PM

The fundamental failing of today's global economy can be summarized simply: Too Much Debt

We have taken too much of it on, too fast, in too many markets around the world, to have any hope of making good on it. Not only does the math not work out, but also on a moral level » Read more

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Defying Gravity

The case for hedging against a market downturn
Wednesday, September 10, 2014, 12:05 AM

Today's markets exist in an Oz-like, fantasy world. For 5 years now, stock and bond prices have risen like Dorothy's balloon, without so much as a puff of downdraft to spoil the fun.

Everybody likes higher prices, so let's have them always go up! Forever!

Whether that can happen is a topic of current hot debate, though few think corrections have been permanently banished from the financial markets. » Read more

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Peak Prosperity

How Much Is A Trillion? - Crash Course Chapter 12

So big, humans really can't grasp it
Friday, September 5, 2014, 11:45 AM

One trillion is a big number. In this short video, we try to help you get a sense for just how big; but the reality is simply that the human brain can't really suitably comprehend magnitudes this large.

Which is why we should be concerned that the US' money supply has ballooned to over $12 trillion dollars over the past decade. And that its outstanding debts and liabilities are many multiples that amount. » Read more

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Where To From Here?

An analysis of the good, the bad & the ugly
Wednesday, September 3, 2014, 1:02 AM

The financial markets were certainly correct in dismissing that rather abysmal first quarter 2014 GDP print, no?  After all, the current 4.2% GDP growth snapback revision in Q2 is proof positive Q1 was just a one-off fluke. Right?

The fact is: for a good five years now, economic pundits have been both hoping for, and then repeatedly disappointed by, the US economy's inability to achieve "escape velocity”.

So what lies ahead for the US economy? And for the financial markets? Are things going to get better or worse from here? » Read more

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Inflation - Crash Course Chapter 11

Our devaluing dollars are a historically recent phenomenon
Friday, August 29, 2014, 6:36 PM

For close to 300 years, inflation in the US remained very subdued. Small spurts occurred around major wars (Revolutionary, Civil, WW1, etc), but after each, inflation quickly trended back down to its long-term baseline. If you lived during this stretch of time, your money had roughly the same purchasing power your great-grandfather's did. » Read more

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I Blame The Central Banks

For the coming bond bubble disaster
Wednesday, August 27, 2014, 8:17 PM

The current bubble in financial assets -- in both equities and bonds of all grades and quality -- raging in every major market across the globe is no accident.

It's a deliberate creation. An intentional result of policy.

Therefore, when it bursts, we shouldn't regard the resulting damage as some freak act of nature or other such outcome outside of our control. To reiterate, the carnage will be the very predictable result of our terribly shortsighted decision-making and defective logic. » Read more

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Peak Prosperity

Quantitative Easing - Crash Course Chapter 10

What exactly is this process that the world is betting on?
Friday, August 22, 2014, 9:34 PM

At the exponential pace at which the Fed is increasing the money supply, and knowing the huge challenges the Fed – and most other world central banks  - face in trying to stop or even slow down their money printing, the potential for a disruptive global inflationary period is very real.

So what exactly is quantitative easing» Read more

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Ukraine: A Perspective from Europe

The West's power & influence is on the wane
Wednesday, August 20, 2014, 11:54 AM

It is still a mystery to many historians as to how and why this World War I led to the slaughter of nine million people. But analysis of different parties to the original event, pursuing their own vested interests without a grasp of the bigger picture, certainly rings true of the Ukrainian situation today with regards to the West, embodied in a disparate committee called NATO. The similarity with the chaotic diplomacy that led to WW1 stops there: Russia under Vladimir Putin’s leadership appears to have a good grasp of its objective. » Read more

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Peak Prosperity

A Brief History of US Money - Crash Course Chapter 9

The rules get changed (a lot)
Friday, August 15, 2014, 6:29 PM

Looking at the past 100 years of the US dollar's history, one theme becomes abundantly clear: in times of crisis, the US government has no issue with changing its own rules or breaking its own laws. And those "temporary" emergency measures have a nasty habit of quickly becoming permanent. » Read more

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On the Path To War

Putin plays chess, the "markets" play Tic-Tac-Toe
Monday, August 11, 2014, 7:25 PM

The US is clearly now pushing Russia towards war. But if you read the signs correctly, Russia has been preparing for exactly this outcome for many years.

Out of several reasons that US power brokers specifically -- but western power brokers more generally -- are deeply unhappy with Russia right now is that Russia is committing a cardinal sin: it is openly, brazenly calling for an end to dollar dominance and has moved aggressively with China to achieve that aim. » Read more